We get a nod back to the “Pac-12 After Dark” days with a showdown between No. 21 Arizona State and Utah at Rice-Eccles Stadium at the end of Saturday’s college football slate.
You could argue that both teams are in must-win mode after being dealt losses earlier in the season, but only Utah’s came against a Big 12 opponent, so the Sun Devils could still make a run at the Big 12 Championship Game and beyond with a loss.
Hard to see that being the case for Utah, however.
Utah’s hot start to the season was derailed in one quarter against Texas Tech.
Trailing 10-3 going into the fourth frame, Utah surrendered 24 points to the Red Raiders in a humbling 34-10 loss. It was enough to tumble the Utes out of the Top 25 and quiet the hype around the team being a contender for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The defeat was concerning, but it does feel like Utah could be underrated based on just one poor showing against a really good team.
The opposite feels true of Arizona State.
The Sun Devils are 4-1, with their lone defeat coming against a peskier-than-expected Mississippi State team, but they’ve also barely escaped against Baylor and TCU.
Those are good teams, but the Sun Devils were just a bounce or two away from being 2-3.
The underlying metrics also suggest that Arizona State’s record is built on a house of cards.
According to SP+, the Sun Devils grade out as the 39th-best team in the country, somewhere between Iowa, South Carolina, and Arkansas.
Arizona State also appears likely to be without star quarterback Sam Leavitt, who was moved from probable to doubtful with an undisclosed injury late in the week.
Utah sits at No. 17 in the same power rankings, led by a defense that grades out as the eighth-best in the nation.
The Utes could roll in this one.
The Play: Utah –8.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.