Alabama, Georgia and the SEC are not needed to have a College Football Playoff championship game loaded with NFL Draft talent.
Though it has been customary to see one of those teams — or both — using the final college football game of the season to showcase future first-round draft picks to a wider audience, Monday night’s Michigan-Washington matchup (7:30 p.m., ESPN) has plenty to offer to armchair scouts ready to start filling out mock drafts.
Post Sports+ asked ESPN analyst Jordan Reid to help provide a NFL Draft fan’s guide to the championship game.
2023 stats: 66.7 percent (336-for-504), 4,648 yards, 35 TDs, 9 INTs; 32 carries for 13 yards, 3 TDs
Penix, 23, put his unorthodox-but-lightning-quick release on display when throwing for 430 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions on 38 attempts against Texas in the semifinals.
Reid compares Penix’s arm angle to that of retired Chargers great Philip Rivers and describes Penix as “an all-arm thrower who doesn’t really incorporate his lower body into throws much.”
“He’s an absolute sniper from the pocket,” Reid said. “The question was: Can he move around in the pocket consistently and can he show mobility consistently? Just because a prospect hasn’t been asked to do it, doesn’t mean that he can’t do it.”
So, can he?
“The only way I can describe Michael Penix is he’s like the older guy at the YMCA who plays basketball games all day and is automatic from 3-point range,” Reid said, “but every once in a while he will catch the ball and drive past you just to remind you that he can do that, too.”
Penix Jr. could be a first-round pick — possibly as high as the No. 3 quarterback selected — or he could fall out of the first round altogether.
The boom-or-bust aspect boils down to the four season-ending injuries (two torn ACLs, two dislocated shoulder joints) suffered at Indiana – before he transferred in 2022.
“The medical [exams] are going to be the driving force behind his draft status,” Reid said. “He’s not going to be on every team’s board. Some are going to be scared off.
“But when are we going to start giving him credit for overcoming those injuries and then staying healthy the past two seasons? It’s going to be a question of: Do you trust him to stay healthy moving forward? If not, he’s not going to be on your board at all. Personally, I would be comfortable taking him in the first round.”
2023 stats: 73.2 percent (230-for-314), 2,851 yards, 22 TDs, 4 INTs; 60 carries for 171 yards, 3 TDs
If head coach Jim Harbaugh could make a quarterback in a lab to fit his run-and-defense-first philosophy, it would be McCarthy.
“He’s the type of quarterback who’s perfect for what Michigan does because he’s not going to make many mistakes — he keeps the offense on schedule and he makes timely throws,” Reid said. “He is always going to take the quick, easy completion. But he can make throws down the field when you need him to. He always seems to make big plays when you need him to, as well. The perfect blend of a quarterback who doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, but makes enough plays to win games.”
McCarthy, a junior, is 26-1 as a starter. He was considered the No. 3 quarterback in the draft by some analysts earlier this season — before the late-season surges by Penix and LSU’s Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels.
McCarthy, 20, might be better suited returning to school if he thinks there is a chance he will be allowed to prove he is more than a game manager.
“There are a lot of unknowns just because he was in an offense that doesn’t really ask a lot of him,” Reid said. “It begs the question of how good of a passer he is. The big headline on the scouting report is going to be: Can J.J. McCarthy turn into a quarterback you win because of, not somebody you win with?”
Because Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. is considered the best receiver prospect in a decade-plus, he could overshadow what is expected to be a deep class.
Washington receiver Rome Odunze (87 catches, 1,553 yards, 13 TDs; 2 carries for 37 yards, 1 TD) is a worthy consolation prize to any receiver-needy team with a top-10 pick.
“The one word to describe him is ‘polished,’” Reid said. “Everything that he does is effortless. He plays at his own tempo, never in a rush. Very strong hands, really good route-runner, but he’s so poised. It doesn’t matter who is trying to crowd his frame. He can catch in contested situations, he can create on his own. He kind of reminds me of — and I think he has a higher ceiling than this player, though he’s really starting to come into his own — Michael Pittman Jr when he was coming out of USC.”
As you might expect from a ground-and-pound offense, Michigan running back Blake Corum (237 carries for 1,111 yards, 25 TDs; 16 catches, 117 yards, 1 TD) carries the load.
“He’s very compact — only about 5-foot-8, just over 200 pounds,” Reid said. “He kind of reminds me of [Seahawks running back] Kenneth Walker. Now, I don’t think he’s as violent of a runner, but as far as what he can be on the next level.
“He’s very comfortable catching passes out of the backfield. He can run inside, run outside. He’s a natural tackle-breaker — that’s something you have to have as a running back to be successful on the next level. I think he is going to be a very productive pro. He’s a typical high-floor player you’re not going to worry about on a rookie contract.”
Washington left tackle Troy Fautanu: “He’s an absolute stud. He’s my No. 1-ranked interior offensive lineman. There are going to be some questions on if he can be a guard or he can be a tackle. I think he can play tackle in the NFL, but I think his upside is a little bit greater inside. I think he is one of their better offensive players, easily their best offensive lineman.”
Michigan defensive back Mike Sainristil (36 tackles, 1 sack, 5 INTs, 2 forced fumbles, 2 TDs): “Michigan just has so many guys on defense. I think he’s going to be a really productive pro. He makes plays all over the field. He’s a slot corner. They play him at safety a little bit, too. If I had to guess, he’ll probably go in the third round, but I think he will be a Day 1 starter.”
Washington: OLB Bralen Trice, WR Ja’Lynn Polk
Michigan: C Drake Nugent, DT Kris Jenkins, OLB Junior Colson, S Rod Moore