The Alabama Crimson Tide could be in uncharted territory ahead of the 2025 college football season: They may be flying under the radar.
Ranked No. 8 in the first AP Top 25 poll and priced around that same range on the betting board, Alabama is being overlooked in favor of the likes of Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, and Penn State as we head into Week 1.
The main reason for the skepticism is easy to suss out. This is Year 2 of Kalen DeBoer’s tenure, and since he’s not Nick Saban, there are a lot of doubters that the former Washington head coach can handle the heat in Tuscaloosa.
DeBoer and Alabama will try to quiet the doubters with a big showing against Florida State on Saturday.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | -13.5 | -550 | O50.5 (-110) |
| Florida State | +13.5 | +400 | U50.5 (-110) |
If you think DeBoer’s seat is warming up at Alabama, it’s nothing compared to what Jay Norvell is dealing with as he enters his sixth year in Tallahassee.
The Seminoles were priced as the favorites to win the ACC in 2024 and were a trendy pick to win the National Championship after an undefeated regular season in 2023, but they fell flat on their faces right out of the gates last year.
Florida State lost to Georgia Tech in Week 0, and then proceeded to go 2-10 overall and 1-7 in the ACC, good enough for last place.
Everything was a mess for the Seminoles in 2024, but the team’s undoing ultimately came down to a disappointing season from quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, who never seemed able to get the offense out of second gear.
With the season over after just a couple of weeks, every part of the program fell apart, and the Seminoles are essentially starting over in 2025.
There’s plenty of talent coming in through the portal, and there are intriguing names taking over the coordinator roles, but it takes a lot of work (and blind faith) to get to a point where you think that Florida State will reverse its record from 2024.
The Seminoles are putting a ton of hope behind quarterback Tommy Castellanos, who was a mixed bag at Boston College last year.
It may seem like Alabama is undergoing a bit of a reset with Jalen Milroe playing on Sundays, but frankly, there aren’t that many questions for the Tide to answer. The ones they do need to solve — the coach and the quarterback — are massive, but other than that, things are pointing in the right direction for Alabama.
The defense is projected to be elite, and there’s incredible talent all over the field, both of which should make quarterback Ty Simpson’s transition into the starting role a lot easier to handle.
This may seem like a big number to cover on the road, but this matchup really sets up well for Alabama. The defense should rule the day, and Simpson’s offense could be in line for a big day against an FSU defensive unit that struggled to stop a cold in 2024.
Perhaps Simpson sputters out of the gate or Alabama shows some Week 1 rust, but other than that, it’s hard to see Florida State’s path to a cover in this matchup.
They should have their way with the Seminoles on Saturday.
The Play: Alabama -13.5 (bet365)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.