The Post’s Jon Heyman previews the AL West:
O/U wins: 92.5
Key player: Yordan Alvarez. On my annual hitter rankings, I have Alvarez second to Aaron Judge and just ahead of Juan Soto. Anyway, this guy can rake, and in the clutch, and against left-handers. They have a lot of key players, including Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker, but Alvarez gets the nod here for his power and remarkable consistency (33, 37 and 31 homers his last three years). He also brings the fear factor.
Player who’ll need to step up: Hunter Brown. The Michigan native and longtime admirer of the Hall-of-Fame-bound Justin Verlander (a longtime Tigers star) had an uneven rookie season but he showed big promise, striking out 178 batters in 155 ²/₃ innings. He’s looked great in spring, and he’s definitely going to be counted on to show serious improvement as the Astros try to make it a ridiculous eight straight appearances in the ALCS.
Name you’ll get to know: Spencer Arrighetti. The right-hander Arrighetti is the Astros’ top pitching prospect and very likely next in line should anyone else go down. The mid-90s fastball and sweeper combo could make him a natural to get a chance at some point this year. The Albuquerque, N.M., product has risen steadily since being picked in the sixth round in 2021 out of Louisiana-Lafayette.
Biggest question mark: Pitching injuries. Verlander is probably only a couple weeks behind, but Jose Urquidy has an elbow issue and Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia are recovering from elbow surgery. If there seems to be an epidemic of pitching injuries, it has struck the Astros as hard as anyone. They don’t have a ton of top-tier pitching prospects, either — Forrest Whitley was supposed to be the next star but his own injuries have sidetracked him — so these injuries could derail what’s otherwise an excellent team.
How it’ll go down: The Astros have made it to seven straight ALCS, marching on after weathering some serious losses (George Springer, Carlos Correa) and the win-now window continues this year. Their bullpen back end with free agent Josh Hader in the fold ranks as the game’s best, with Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly handling the seventh and eighth innings, and the lineup remains one of the best in the game. The only thing that can stop them is continuing health issues involving the rotation.
O/U wins: 88.5
Key player: Corey Seager. He’s one of the best hitters in the game, and fairly, one of the best hitting shortstops of all time. He’s also a rare mistake by the Dodgers, who were easily outbid for him. He’s now won the World Series MVP for two teams but in one park (Globe Life Field is his home park now in Texas but it’s also where the World Series was played during the pandemic year). Looks like that rare $325 million bargain.
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Player who’ll need to step up: Michael Lorenzen. The righty is expected to join the rotation sometime early in the season after signing late with the reigning world champions for $4.5 million plus $2.5 million in incentives. Lorenzen has something to prove after fading in the second half for the Phillies following his acquisition from the Tigers as a 2023 All-Star. Lorenzen started great in Philly, throwing a no-hitter in his second start for the playoff-bound team before slumping badly enough to lose his rotation spot. While he posted decent numbers overall — 9-9 with a 4.18 ERA — free agency didn’t treat him kindly as teams recalled the fade. The Rangers have three recovering starters — Hall of Fame-bound Max Scherzer plus Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle — so Lorenzen’s role may depend on his performance. He’s also under some pressure after taking the spot of October hero Jordan Montgomery.
Name you’ll get to know: Wyatt Langford. The Florida Gator outfielder who was the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 draft looks like another superstar for the stacked Rangers. He posted huge numbers in spring and has all the makings of a major star. The Rangers have scored big on recent draftees, and this looks like another coup. Obviously, so does Evan Carter, who showed what he can do in the 2023 postseason.
Biggest question mark: Starting rotation. With Max Scherzer (back), Jacob deGrom (elbow) and Mahle (elbow) out for now, they aren’t quite themselves. At full strength the rotation is excellent, but for now it looks middle of the road, which may still be good enough considering their firepower. While they were World Series champions and have more young talent here now, let’s not forget they were only a wild-card winner.
How it’ll go down: They should be able to pummel a lot of teams with their excellent lineup, but ultimately, they’ll probably need to get some of their pitching reinforcements back. It isn’t easy to repeat as champions, anyway, but it’s more difficult to do it shorthanded. They should be good again, and Bruce Bochy will make sure they won’t let down.
O/U wins: 87.5
Key player: Julio Rodriguez. That’s an easy one. J-Rod is not only a fantastic speed-power combination, he brings a winning personality as well. He has 40-40 potential (if not 40-70). The Mariners are very good up the middle, but they will need him to have a big year offensively as they lost some power at third base and don’t have stars on the corners, which is where power usually resides.
Player who’ll need to step up: Ty France. He’s a fine hitter but took a bit of a step back last year when he posted a 99 OPS-plus. He’s looked very good in spring and they are expecting big things from him, which isn’t unreasonable considering his track record. While he isn’t a slugger (only 12 home runs in 2023), he should produce more this year.
Name you’ll get to know: Brett de Geus. He’s another big-armed reliever who could help soon. De Geus, who pitched for the York Revolution of the independent Atlantic League only a couple years ago and has bounced around a lot, was added to the major league roster after a couple nice showing this spring. But with Matt Brash and Gregory Santos a bit behind, he may need to contribute sooner rather than later.
Biggest question mark: Third base. They traded away one of their best power sources in Eugenio Suarez and will instead rely on Luis Urias and Josh Rojas to man the position. That was a curious choice since they don’t have huge power beyond J-Rod, but they obviously like Rojas very much and expect to be OK here. We shall see.
How it’ll go down: They have an excellent young rotation led by superb veteran Luis Castillo and a host of fine draftees who should keep them in most games. They are as strong as almost anyone up the middle with J-Rod plus catcher Cal Raleigh, shortstop JP Crawford and second baseman Jorge Polanco so they should be extremely solid, if not better again. GM Jerry Dipoto talked about the 54 percent solution, and while winning 54 percent of their games doesn’t seem very exciting, it makes this team a playoff candidate again after two decades of sitting out October.
O/U wins: 72.5
Key player: Mike Trout. Were you thinking it could be anyone else? Trout is once again the far and away top Angels player now that two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani has left town (by 45 miles, anyway). Trout is an all-time great who’s still in his prime, but injuries have curtailed him over the last three years. He’s healthy and super fit so there’s hope he can get back to playing a full season, and if he does, expect him to be great again despite some timing issues in spring.
Player who’ll need to step up: Anthony Rendon. He confirmed suspicions that he doesn’t love to play by telling folks baseball is just a job for him. For the Angels’ sake, they need him to use that punch card a lot more frequently. He should still be in his prime, and while folks can’t figure he will prove he’s worth close to his $245 million deal, he should still produce a lot more than he’s done since coming to the OC, which is almost nothing.
Name you’ll get to know: Logan O’Hoppe. He’s healthy and ready to lead the young Angels staff. The Long Islander (he’s from Sayville) has a big personality and could be just the right man to do it. He also has big tools. Of course, this won’t be an easy job, as the rotation is comprised of relative kids and reclamation cases. O’Hoppe is part of the young nucleus that provides hope, along with shortstop Zach Neto, first baseman Nolan Schanuel and outfielder Jo Adell.
Biggest question mark: The rotation. Ohtani wasn’t going to be able to pitch anyway, but the Angels haven’t replaced him and will need to depend on improvement from several young or youngish arms, including Reid Detmers, Chase Silseth, Griffin Canning and Patrick Sandoval. They all have a chance but there’s no obvious ace in the group. They also need better from Tyler Anderson, who looked like a bargain when he signed for $40 million over three years, but like most Angels free agents, he disappointed in Year 1.
How it’ll go down: They have some nice young players, but it looks like it could be a long year in Anaheim (or Los Angeles adjacent) in the year after Shohei. They generally won 72-76 games with the best player on Earth, so even with the expected rise of a decent young nucleus, that would seem to be a worthy goal, especially in a division that includes the last two World Series winners plus the rising Mariners.
O/U wins: 57.5
Key player: Zack Gelof. This improbable star came from Delaware and Team Israel, but there’s no doubting he’s on his way now. Folks were shocked by his excellent performance as a rookie in 2023 — 14 home runs, .267 batting average — but the shock should be worn off now. The kid can play. He looked fantastic in spring and appears on his way to good/great things.
Player who’ll need to step up: Shea Langeliers. There’s no pressure on anyone to rescue this team as it’s not rescuable but it’d be nice to see Langeliers progress into star territory. With 21 of his 22 home runs coming while behind the plate last year, he was tied for third-most homers by a catcher. Defense had always been his calling card, but he had some issues receiving last year. He has a chance to be a fine two-way catcher, and now is the time to show it.
Name you’ll get to know: Joe Boyle. While he began the year at Double-A Chattanooga and spent the vast majority of the season in the minors, he was brilliant in a late-season cameo, going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his three starts. He limited hitters to a .148 batting average a .476 OPS which was impressive enough, but especially compared to a minor league campaign where he posted a 3.84 ERA (not bad but not nearly as dominant). The former fifth-rounder out of Notre Dame (by the Reds, in 2020) will start in the A’s rotation and should stay there.
Biggest question mark: Where they will play? They get at least a year reprieve so it’s one more at the Oakland Mausoleum, which believed it or not, is a blessing. That’s because they could be almost anywhere next year — Salt Lake and Sacramento are two possibilities — as they prepare for the expected move to Las Vegas. This is obviously an undesirable situation, bordering on a mess. It’s not good for anyone, including the players.
How it’ll go down: They threatened early to break the 1962 Mets record of 120 defeats but wound up falling far short of that. While they are probably the worst team in the majors, there’s no expectation they will come close to the Mets’ infamous mark. They have a smart front office and enough solid veteran players — J.D. Davis was a late signee — that they even have a chance to avoid 100 losses. Maybe.