CONCORD, New Hampshire — It’s no secret that former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has bet big on the first-in-the-nation primary, spending much of his campaign time in the Granite State.
The 61-year-old is banking on New Hampshire voters to give him a similar jolt of momentum to what John McCain enjoyed in 2008, when the Arizona senator used a blowout primary win to coast to the Republican nomination that year.
But what’s the plan after New Hampshire’s votes are cast?
“Michigan,” Christie told The Post following a town hall last week.
The Great Lakes State will host the sixth contest on the Republican primary calendar, doling out 55 delegates via a two-pronged process — with 16 allocated based on the Feb. 27 primary and the remaining 39 awarded at a party convention on March 2.
Before that, Republican National Convention delegates will be awarded in Nevada and South Carolina, as well as the US Virgin Islands.
“Nevada is, you know, problematic because of the way they set up the process,” Christie said, referring to the Silver State’s dueling primary/caucus setup that critics believe could confuse voters and be skewed toward former President Donald Trump.
Like New Hampshire, Michigan allows unaffiliated voters to participate in the primary, which could benefit a moderate Republican like Christie.
But while Christie’s time in the Granite State has been rewarded with double-digit support, he’s failed to crack 2% in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of Michigan polls.
Corwin Smidt, chair of the political science department at Michigan State University, told The Post he was skeptical of Christie’s strategy, though he noted that it is not uncommon for state voters to fall in behind a successful candidate.
“Biden was doing terrible in Michigan in January of 2020. He was losing,” Corwin recalled. “Then suddenly South Carolina happened.”
In order for the Michigan play to work, however, Christie still needs to eke out a strong performance in New Hampshire, which is his campaign’s top priority.
“You have to really show up and perform well in one of the early states. That is just a must-do,” a source close to the campaign told The Post.
“We’re gonna keep keep our focus in New Hampshire.”
With seven weeks to go until primary day, the scramble for the Granite State is starting to kick into high gear.
New Hampshire is generally regarded as the least religious state in the country. Although it currently touts a Republican governor and GOP-controlled legislature, it has backed the Democratic presidential candidate in every cycle since 2004.
Still, former President Donald Trump is the reigning polling king among Granite State Republicans, and experts see little chance for Christie to break through.
“The problem for Christie is, he’s antagonized those Trump voters a lot and he’s antagonized other Republicans a lot,” Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, told The Post.
“[Christie] is quite an unpopular figure among mainstream Republicans. He is a Democrat’s idea of a good Republican,” agreed Dante Scala, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire. That’s not a great place to grow from.”
Christie has partially embraced that antagonism, priding himself on “telling it like it is.”
“This is not an angry country. Not a country that believes in revenge and retribution,” he told voters last week.
However, the former governor has also paid tribute to New Hampshire’s beloved brand of retail politics, telling one audience: “You guys are the political wine tasters of America.”
Potentially buoying Christie’s prospects is the fact that the Democratic National Committee appears poised to deny New Hampshire delegates at next summer’s party convention due to a clash over scheduling.
That could cause Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents to intervene in the GOP primary rather than cast ballots in a meaningless exercise.
“I love the way he takes it to Trump,” said Katherine Johnson, 61, a Democrat who volunteers for the Christie campaign said. “I’ll definitely vote for him in the primary.”
Johnson was less committal about backing Christie in a general election matchup against President Biden, but the concept gave her pause.
“If I felt as if the Congress and the Senate could be in Democratic hands, I would absolutely vote for Governor Christie,” she said.
Scala said he was unsure about how much of a factor the DNC tumult will be in Christie’s favor
“I think that’s a minor plus,” he said. “I’m old, so I’ve heard this story any number of times, like how a candidate is going to create all of this massive crossover appeal.”
“You read a Christie campaign memo and the amount of magical thinking per page is is astounding,” he added.
One example of that magical thinking is a poll that Christie’s campaign loves to highlight: A CNN/University of New Hampshire survey that found 17% of likely GOP voters in the state said they didn’t vote during the 2016 primary.
Of that bloc of voters, Christie leads with 36% backing.
In 2016, Christie finished sixth in New Hampshire, then dropped out shortly afterwards.
This time, the field is more consolidated, and the governor believes the contest is highly volatile due to uncertainty surrounding Trump’s legal status.