Ryan Dunleavy previews the AFC South as The Post gives division-by-division breakdowns ahead of the 2023 NFL season.
Coach: Doug Pederson
2022 record: 9-8
O/U wins: 9.5
Key additions: K Brandon McManus, OT Josh Wells, OT Anton Harrison
Key departures: RT Jawaan Taylor, EDGE Arden Key, WR Marvin Jones, TE Chris Manhertz, CB Shaq Griffin
First-and-goal: Count the Jaguars as wanting to believe that momentum carries over from one season to the next after an unexpected six-game winning streak led them to the AFC divisional playoffs. QB Trevor Lawrence is about to enter the crowded conversation of great young signal-callers. Pro Bowl WR Calvin Ridley technically was acquired at the trade deadline last year while suspended for gambling, but will be making his Jaguars debut. Pederson tapped into the tantalizing talent of WR Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram in their first years together. No AFC contender has an easier route to the playoffs.
Fourth-and-long: LT Cam Robinson’s season-opening four-game suspension, coupled with Taylor’s departure, causes a major disruption to an offensive line that was key to the Jaguars’ rise from the NFL wasteland. If the Jaguars are going to beat a top quarterback in the playoffs, their pass rush can’t just be the Josh Allen solo act. Travon Walker, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft, and fellow former first-rounder K’Lavon Chaisson need to live up to their draft billing. One year after spending nearly $300 million in free agency, the Jaguars were quiet this past March.
Dunleavy’s decision: 10-7. It might be difficult to assess how good the Jaguars are until the playoffs because this division title could be all but over by Halloween.
Coach: DeMeco Ryans
2022 record: 3-13-1
O/U wins: 6.5
Key additions: QB C.J. Stroud, G Shaq Mason, WR Robert Woods, DE Will Anderson, S Jimmie Ward, DT Sheldon Rankins, TE Dalton Schultz, RB Devin Singletary, CB Shaq Griffin, OT George Fant
Key departures: WR Brandin Cooks, EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, C Justin Britt, G A.J. Cann, EDGE Mario Addison
First-and-goal: Ryans’ availability was too good to be true because he is a former Texans star, an in-demand coaching candidate and a defensive mind who can fix the Texans’ weakness. RB Dameon Pierce (72.2 rushing yards per game) was a 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Drafting Stroud and Anderson (No. 2 and No. 3 picks, respectively) laid a long-term foundation to complement some immediate-impact additions like Rankins. Stroud has better weapons — a tight end like Schultz is a young quarterback’s best friend — and a better line than predecessor QB Davis Mills ever had.
Fourth-and-long: Ryans isn’t a miracle-worker. It will take longer than one year to turn around the No. 30 total defense, No. 27 scoring defense and a historically bad No. 32 rushing defense. CB Derek Stingley Jr. — drafted ahead of Sauce Gardner in 2022 — has a lot of ground to make up in that race. Even with the addition of Mason, Stroud could face pressure in his face because the interior offensive line trio is underwhelming. Woods and fellow WRs Nico Collins, John Metchie and Tank Dell offer speed. But who will be the No. 1 target?
Dunleavy’s decision: 7-10. It’s a big step forward as Houston puts the tumultuous era of Deshaun Watson and back-to-back one-year head coaches (David Culley and Lovie Smith) in the rear-view mirror.
Coach: Mike Vrabel
2022 record: 7-10
O/U wins: 7.5
Key additions: WR DeAndre Hopkins, OT Andre Dillard, EDGE Arden Key, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, OT Peter Skoronski, G Daniel Brunskill
Key departures: OT Taylor Lewan, G Nate Davis, WR Robert Woods, DT DeMarcus Walker, C Ben Jones, LB David Long, EDGE Bud Dupree
First-and-goal: Not ready to admit that their championship window likely closed when they didn’t win a playoff game after 23 regular-season wins in 2020-21, the Titans added Hopkins and stuck with QB Ryan Tannehill despite his $36.6 million salary-cap hit (second-biggest to Patrick Mahomes in the NFL this season). RB Derrick Henry has led the NFL in carries in three of the last four seasons and hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down — yet — at 29 years old. The Titans boasted the top-ranked rushing defense (76.9 yards per game) — no surprise with stud DT Jeffery Simmons — last season.
Fourth-and-long: About that defense … it also ranked last in the league against the pass (274. 8 yards per game). And yet the Titans directed all six of their draft picks to the offensive side. The Week 1 offensive line features four new faces after Tennessee parted ways with longtime starters Jones and Lewan, and while RT Nicholas Petit-Frere serves a six-game suspension. OLB Harold Landry is coming off a missed season after he signed an $87.5 million extension. WR Treylon Burks — drafted with the return pick in the unpopular A.J. Brown trade — disappointed as a rookie.
Dunleavy’s decision: 6-11. At least this should afford plenty of opportunity to evaluate both young QBs, Malik Willis and Will Levis, to see if either can be the starter in 2024.
Coach: Shane Steichen
2022 record: 4-12
O/U wins: 6.5
Key additions: QB Anthony Richardson, QB Gardner Minshew, EDGE Samson Ebukam, K Matt Gay, DT Taven Bryan
Key departures: QB Matt Ryan, LB Bobby Okereke, EDGE Yannick Ngakoue, WR Parris Campbell, CB Stephon Gilmore, S Rodney McLeod
First-and-goal: The high-ceiling, high-floor freakishly athletic Richardson will be the Colts’ sixth different Week 1 starting quarterback in the last six seasons. Visions of Steichen developing Richardson as he did Eagles QB Jalen Hurts are tantalizing. Bounce-back seasons are needed from C Ryan Kelly and LG Quenton Nelson if the offensive line is going to be as good as it was from 2018-21, rather than as bad as it was during former QB Andrew Luck’s career and again last season. The Colts drafted four defensive backs in an attempt to build a secondary that can grow together.
Fourth-and-long: Uncertainty surrounds the best playmaker on both sides of the ball. RB Jonathan Taylor, who will miss at least the first four games, is seeking a trade amid an ugly contract dispute that kept him out of practice. The 2021 rushing champion was injured most of last season. For the third straight season, LB Shaq Leonard entered training camp with uncertainty about his health after he was limited to three games last season by recurring nerve issues in his back and lower leg and suffered a concussion in training camp. After playing too many prime-time games last season, the Colts are not scheduled for one in 2023.
Dunleavy’s decision: 4-13. There finally is a long-term vision at quarterback, but the Colts are early in a rebuilding process after they delayed the inevitable for too long.