Steve Serby previews the AFC East as The Post gives division-by-division breakdowns ahead of the 2023 NFL season.
Coach: Robert Saleh
2022 record: 7-10
O/U wins: 9.5
Key additions: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Dalvin Cook, WR Allen Lazard, WR Randall Cobb, OLB Will McDonald, C Joe Tippmann, LT Carter Warren, RB Israel Abanikanda, S Adrian Amos, OT Billy Turner, WR Jason Brownlee, WR Xavier Gipson, WR Irvin Charles, P Thomas Morstead
Key departures: WR Corey Davis, QB Mike White, QB Joe Flacco, WR/KR Braxton Berrios, P Braden Mann
First-and-goal: Rodgers-to-Garrett Wilson will be fun. Rodgers and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett are one mind in two bodies. RB Breece Hall (ACL) will ease back with Dalvin Cook on board. RG Alijah Vera-Tucker is Pro Bowl-bound. DT Quinnen Williams is the anchor of an intimidating D-line with edge rusher Jermaine Johnson ready for a breakthrough. CBs Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed are the best tandem in the NFL. MLB C.J. Mosley is the brains of the operation. Saleh has the respect of Rodgers and the team.
Fourth-and-long: Will edge Carl Lawson’s back issues persist? Can RT Mekhi Becton stay on the field and be the dominant player he showed he could be as a rookie? Can second-year S Tony Adams continue to ascend? The early schedule is unforgiving. Can Saleh end the 12-year playoff drought in Year 3?
Serby Says: 10-7. Rodgers-to-Wilson and the potential for a No. 1 defense wins the division.
Coach: Sean McDermott
2022 record: 13-3
O/U wins: 10.5
Key additions: OLB Leonard Floyd, TE Dalton Kincaid, G O’Cyrus Torrence, RB Damien Harris, RB Latavius Murray, G Connor McGovern, DT Poona Ford, QB Kyle Allen, G David Edwards, WR Trent Sherfield, WR Deonte Harty
Key departures: LB Tremaine Edmunds, RB Devin Singletary, QB Case Keenum, OLB Boogie Basham
First-and-goal: Dual threat QB Josh Allen is an annual MVP candidate and WR Stefon Diggs is elite. Rookie TE Kincaid has a chance to be Allen’s Travis Kelce someday. RB James Cook will be a passing-game weapon. DE Gregory Rousseau is an emerging double-digit sack threat. OLB Von Miller (PUP list) is 34, but if he can stay healthy, he knows how to rush the passer. So does Floyd. The secondary has continuity with seven-year safety tandem Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer and CB Tre’Davious White. Special teams are elite. Damar Hamlin can be an inspiration. Don’t forget the Bills Mafia.
Fourth-and-long: Former defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier opting to take the year off means more responsibility for McDermott. Diggs has appeared frustrated and Allen had better keep him fed. Allen, for his own preservation, needs to stop reckless runs. WR Gabe Davis can wreck a game when he’s on, but he isn’t on often enough. Will recent playoff disappointments cause self-doubt about why Buffalo can’t get over the hump?
Serby Says: 10-7. Still The Team To Beat, but a fourth consecutive division title is no more guarantee.
Coach: Mike McDaniel
2022 record: 9-8
O/U wins: 9.5
Key additions: CB Jalen Ramsey, ILB David Long, WR/KR Braxton Berrios, QB Mike White, S DeShon Elliott, P Jake Bailey, CB Cam Smith, RB De’Von Achane, OT Isaiah Wynn, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, CB Eli Apple, CB Kelvin Joseph
Key departures: LB Elandon Roberts, TE Mike Gesicki, QB Teddy Bridgewater, TE Adam Shaheen, P Thomas Morstead, WR Trent Sherfield, C Michael Deiter, S Eric Rowe, CB Noah Igbinoghene
First-and-goal: QB Tua Tagovailoa was 8-3 before his frightening concussion issues. Cheetah WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle form the league’s best tandem. Coordinator Vic Fangio is a defensive guru. OLB Jaelan Phillips has breakout pass rusher written all over him, which will make OLB Bradley Chubb more dangerous. DE Christian Wilkins (12 sacks) is a leader. Ramsey (knee surgery) and Xavien Howard will make life miserable for receivers whenever they’re on the field together. FS Jevon Holland is destined for stardom.
Fourth-and-long: If Tagovailoa can’t stay healthy, the Dolphins will be filleted. Apple and rookie Cam Smith fill in until Ramsey returns, possibly in December. The O-line is iffy. Can Miami run the ball effectively? Jason Sanders has made just 49 of 63 field-goal attempts the last two seasons. Second-hardest strength of schedule awaits.
Serby Says: 9-8. Three of their first four games are on the road. A trade for Jonathan Taylor would have helped.
Coach: Bill Belichick
2022 record: 8-9
O/U wins: 7.5
Key additions: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, CB Christian Gonzalez, DE Keion White, RB Ezekiel Elliott, TE Mike Gesicki, RT Riley Reiff, K Chad Ryland, P Bryce Baringer, LB Marte Mapu, LB Chris Board, OT Calvin Anderson, WR Demario Douglas, WR Kayshon Boutte
Key departures: WR Jakobi Meyers, RB Damien Harris, QB Brian Hoyer, TE Jonnu Smith, S Devin McCourty, P Jake Bailey, WR Nelson Agholor
First-and-goal: New offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien should be a godsend for Mac Jones. RB Rhamondre Stevenson is gifted enough to be a bell cow, but Elliott will be useful in the red zone and at the goal-line. Gesicki and TE Hunter Henry aren’t Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, but few are. OLBs Matthew Judon (15.5 sacks) and Josh Uche (11.5 sacks) bring the heat. The interior O-line, anchored by C David Andrews, is a strength. Matthew Slater is a HOF special teamer. Baringer has a big leg. Ryland will boom touchbacks better than veteran Nick Folk. Belichick misses Tom Brady, but missing the playoffs last season won’t sit well with him.
Fourth-and-long: LT Trent Brown nursed a minor injury in training camp and won’t be in football shape early. Reiff (knee) is on IR. Opting not to sign WR DeAndre Hopkins leaves Jones without a No. 1 WR. Can Jalen Mills make the transition from cornerback to replace McCourty?
Serby Says: 9-8. Belichick is 25-25 and 0-1 in the playoffs since Brady took his talents to Tampa and the owner is growing impatient.