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Oct 3, 2025  |  
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NextImg:Aces vs. Mercury Game 1 prediction: WNBA Finals picks, odds, bets

WNBA superstars A’ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas will face off in the Finals after leading their teams on improbable runs. While they each impact the game significantly, they do so in different ways.

Wilson just won her fourth MVP over the past six years and is generating buzz as perhaps the greatest player ever. Plus, she just captured her second straight scoring title, while also earning her third Defensive Player of the Year award.

However, although a reluctant scorer, Thomas fills up the stat sheet as a nightly triple-double threat and impacts every possession as the primary ball handler.

Plus, at 6-foot-2 and 203 pounds, she is a defensive standout by guarding all five positions.

Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces are three-point home favorites in Game 1 against the Phoenix Mercury with a total of 160 points. This will be the first best-of-seven series in league history.

Las Vegas Aces center A’ja Wilson (22) and Las Vegas Aces guard Chelsea Gray (12) celebrate after a play against the Indiana Fever during overtime in Game 5 of a WNBA basketball playoff semifinals series Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025, in Las Vegas. AP

One important variable is that Las Vegas is coming off an emotional semifinals win, outlasting the Indiana Fever in overtime of their decisive Game 5. That is a tough turnaround for any team across all sports, and I do think it will inhibit the Aces in this initial game.

I also believe the Mercury are peaking at the right time, which admittedly can also be said for the Aces. Phoenix starts a rookie, Monique Akoa Makani, and star Kahleah Copper missed 16 regular-season games.

It took them a while to find their rhythm, but they’ve never played better than they did in the previous series, when they eliminated the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx.

I have a 68-53-1 ATS record in this Post sports section and my next play is the Phoenix Mercury +3 (-115, BetMGM Sportsbook) in the WNBA Finals opener.

Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.