


It’s been a hiccup-free start to the season for the 49ers.
Four straight wins, all in commanding fashion with the offense scoring 30-plus points each game.
Brock Purdy has returned from injury without an issue while Christian McCaffrey has supplanted himself as a potential MVP candidate.
But their toughest test comes on Sunday night when they welcome the Cowboys to Levi’s Stadium.
San Francisco sits as short 3.5-point favorites in one of the best matchups of the season pitting two of the best teams in the NFC.
To me, this is the perfect opportunity to back the Cowboys.
Each of their past two seasons have come to an end at the hands of San Francisco.
This game was circled about 20 times in red marker, and there’s probably a printed out photo of the 49ers logo — or Kyle Shanahan’s face — taped onto a dart board inside the team’s facilities.
The key to slowing down this 49ers offense is by generating pressure on Purdy.
In a clean pocket, Purdy is extremely efficient.
His adjusted completion percentage sits at 90.4, and his turnover-worthy play rate sits below 2.5.
But when he’s under pressure? Those numbers drastically change.
Purdy’s ACP drops to 58.1 and his TWPs jumps 4 percent.
That’s where the Cowboys can exploit most, boasting a top three pass rush, per Pro Football Focus.
They can take advantage of an overrated 49ers offensive line — a PFF pass block grade of 53.7, 26th in the NFL — that hasn’t been tested much at all.
In general, Dallas’ defense is No. 1 in DVOA.
The loss of Trevon Diggs is a big one, but the Cowboys remain elite at stopping the pass.
You can’t stop McCaffrey, but limiting him in any way and pressuring Purdy is the perfect combination to slowing down this 49ers offense that is in rhythm.
The general public remains low on this Dallas team for some reason.
Maybe it was the loss against Arizona, but aside from that game, the Cowboys have outscored their opponents, 108-13.
That’s with Dak Prescott not even taking over in games, either.
Dallas has opted for a run-heavy approach, with Tony Pollard getting more than 18 carries a game.
Rico Dowdle has filled in as a nice complement behind Pollard, too.
The Cowboys’ run game should find success again Sunday night. Though the 49ers’ defense ranks top 10 in defensive DVOA, they are just 23rd in rush DVOA.
A huge plus for this Dallas team is its offensive line returning to full health, too.
Left Tackle Tyron Smith missed last week but will play against San Francisco — as will Tyler Biadasz and Zack Martin, both of whom were held out of the Cowboys’ loss to the Cardinals.
All three players are high-level linemen who are critical for Dallas’ offense to find its groove.
Having a good offensive line and establishing the run will set up deep-ball opportunities and the play action.
In a game that sets up to be back and forth, I am more than ecstatic to grab the underdog here.
Not only should Sunday come down to the final possession in a game, where I think the Cowboys actually hold the advantage in multiple key areas, but this is a revenge spot where Dallas will be extremely motivated.
The 49ers are undefeated, yes.
But this is their first real test against a dominant Dallas defense.
Back the Cowboys to come out strong and avenge their emotional losses to San Francisco over the past couple of seasons.