Scottie Scheffler may be a decisive favorite (+280) to win the 2025 U.S. Open, but this tournament has all the right ingredients for chaos.
As well as Scheffler has played lately, the U.S. Open has a habit of humbling even the most in-form golfers.
And this version of the tournament, which is being played at the notoriously difficult Oakmont Country Club in the suburbs of Pittsburgh, should do just that.
This is the 10th time that Oakmont will play host to the U.S. Open, and in the last two iterations, this track chewed up the field.
Dustin Johnson won the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont with a final score of 4-under par and was one of five players in the red after 72 holes that year.
Nine years prior, Angel Cabrera won at Oakmont with a final score of 5-over par.
In other words, you should be preparing for maximum chaos in Western PA this week.
That should be music to your ears if you’re someone who likes to have a flutter on a long shot or two at major championships.
Even better news is the fact that so much value will be sucked up by Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau (+700), and Rory McIlroy (11/1), that you’re going to get some whopper prices on players with actual winning upside.
It makes sense to target two specific types of players when looking for a long shot this week. The first group is players who do a solid job of avoiding trouble with a strong game off the tee. That’s Aaron Rai’s music.
Ranked No. 1 on the PGA Tour this season in driving accuracy, Rai has had a year with plenty of ups and downs. He’s got four top-15 finishes this season, but he’s also missed four cuts, including in each of his last two outings.
More encouraging, however, is the fact that Rai has had some strong performances in the toughest events on the calendar. He finished T19 at the PGA Championship, T14 at THE PLAYERS, and T11 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
If you think the key to success in this tournament is to grind out something around even par, Rai should be on your card.
The second type of skillset I’ll be looking for this week is the ability to get out of trouble with some short-game magic. Patrick Reed has that in spades.
The greens at Oakmont are going to be quick and challenging, but Reed’s touch on and around the dance floor should give him a leg up over most of the field.
There does seem to be a bit of a correlation between Oakmont and Augusta National, which is why this could be a good week to have some exposure to Sungjae Im.
The South Korean has three top-10 finishes at Augusta, including a T2 in 2020 and a T5 this April.
Like Rai, Im’s accuracy off the tee should keep him out of trouble, so long as the rest of his game is working.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.