The 2025 U.S. Open should be a handicapper’s delight.
Not only is there a decisive favorite at the top of the board sucking up a ton of value, allowing you to get great numbers on contenders down the board, but the tournament is also being played on a notoriously difficult course that could level the playing field.
The average winning score the last two times that Oakmont hosted the U.S. Open (2007 and 2016) was 1-over par.
Only four players finished under par in those two tournaments combined.
This kind of setup, which should be ripe for chaos, allows bettors to build a betting card with an extremely high ceiling without risking much money.
We’ll lean into the volatility with our favorite prop bets on the board for the 2025 U.S. Open, starting with a doozy.
There are always some big names that miss the cut at a major, but you can expect more than usual this week if the course plays as difficult as expected.
That means it’s time to build a miss-the-cut parlay with some serious juice.
Any golfer can lose their rhythm on the course with one swing of the club, but I’ve built this ticket around particularly volatile players who have a tendency to fly off the handle in an instant.
For Rory McIlroy (+250) and Justin Thomas (+175), the tailspin usually comes on the putting green.
As for Jon Rahm (+350), Tyrrell Hatton (+137), and Jordan Spieth (+162), they tend to let their emotions get the best of them when things go pear-shaped.
This is a massive long shot for a reason, but if things do get funky at Oakmont, we should see plenty of headliners on the sidelines for the final two rounds.
Being accurate off the tee could wind up as the most important skillset at Oakmont this week.
The course is going to chew up any wayward drives, making it incredibly difficult to avoid a crooked number if you start off in the rough.
Perez is one of the most accurate drivers in this field, and he’s got four top-20 finishes in his last nine starts, not including team events.
It does seem like Dustin Johnson, the most recent winner at Oakmont back in 2016, is flying under the radar this week.
He’s a triple-digit long shot to win, putting him in the same range as players like Andrew Novak, Carlos Ortiz and J.T. Poston.
All due respect to that trio, but they don’t have the winning upside that Johnson has, even at 40 years old.
The main competition for Johnson in this market will be Bryson DeChambeau, Rahm, and Joaquin Niemann, but given how this course sets up, and DJ’s history here, I don’t think the gap should be this wide between that cohort and the 2016 champion.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.