The 2025 U.S. Open gets underway Thursday morning at Oakmont Country Club just outside of Pittsburgh.
The oddsmakers believe it’ll take something really special to outlast Scottie Scheffler (+280), Bryson DeChambeau (+700), Rory McIlroy (11/1), and Jon Rahm (12/1) over the course of 72 holes, but things change when you change the ask to just 18 holes.
That’s why the first-round leader market is so much fun, especially at majors.
Just about anybody in this field can get hot enough to post the best score after just one round of golf, especially at a course like Oakmont, which is widely considered to be one of the toughest on the circuit.
There seem to be plenty of similarities between Oakmont and Augusta. It’s a difficult course that requires you to be precise off the tee and, even then, you need to overcome some lightning-fast greens.
It just so happens that Justin Rose, the 2013 U.S. Open champion, has been the first-round leader twice at the Masters.
Rose has struggled since losing a dramatic playoff against McIlroy at the Masters in April, but his game should translate well to Oakmont, where you need to be equal parts clever and pragmatic to contend.
Nine years ago, Dustin Johnson won his first major at the 2016 U.S. Open here at Oakmont.
DJ is not the player he was back then, but his form on LIV has been decent, with a pair of top-10 finishes in his last three outings.
Johnson should be as confident as any golfer in this field ahead of Round 1, let’s hope that shows up on his scorecard.
He’s still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour, but Denny McCarthy has the ability to get scorching hot without much notice thanks to his elite ability with the putter.
The greens at Oakmont are expected to be full of twists and turns, so it makes sense to find a way to back one of the world’s best putters in some fashion.
McCarthy is unlikely to have the game to win this tournament, but perhaps his putter can propel him to the top of the leaderboard after Thursday.
A course like Oakmont is a field-leveler. You can’t just show up and overpower it. You need to be calculated, crafty, and creative.
That gives players like Phil Mickelson a chance to make some noise.
Whether he can do it over 72 holes against this field is an entirely different question, but Mickelson clearly has some magic left in his locker. He is coming off a T4 at LIV Virginia, and has three finishes of sixth or better this season on the renegade tour.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.