Every golf tournament is different, but none are more unique than the Open Championship.
It is played on foreign soil, on a links-style course, and the weather has a massive impact on the proceedings.
There are 156 players in the field at Royal Portrush, but none will have a bigger say in how things go than Mother Nature.
While some may think that the unpredictability that these elements bring to the table hinders bettors because it makes the Open tricky to predict, the opposite is true.
This kind of chaos presents an opportunity for those who know how to utilize it to their advantage, especially when it comes to live-betting opportunities.
By the time you’re reading this, Round 1 of the Open Championship could be more than halfway over, but that doesn’t mean that you’ve missed out on your chance to cash in on the goings on in Northern Ireland.
Here are some things to keep in mind to help you make savvy live-betting decisions for the last major of the 2025 season:
Things change quickly at the Open Championship, and you’d think that a tournament defined by unpredictability and chaos would allow for some late-closing winners, but the opposite is true.
According to golf statistician Justin Ray, each of the last 25 winners of the Claret Jug were within five shots of the lead after 18 holes, and the last 15 Open champions boasted a first-round scoring average of 67.1.
Last year’s winner, Xander Schauffele, shot 2-under in Round 1, putting him four shots back of the lead.
Shane Lowry, who won at Royal Portrush when it last hosted this event in 2019, carded a 67 in the first round, putting him one back of J.B. Holmes.
That said, a solid start doesn’t guarantee that you will be a contender over the weekend.
Seventeen players shot under par in Round 1 at Royal Troon last year. Ten of them finished the tournament over par.
Although the data tells us you need to be within five strokes of the lead after Round 1 to have a chance of winning, it doesn’t mean you should completely write off a slow-starting player, especially if they’re one of the heavyweights.
There were four players who finished T2 at the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool, and three of them shot over par in Round 1. The other, Sepp Straka, was even after 18 holes.
Last year, Billy Horschel finished T2 along with Justin Rose. While Rose got off the blocks hot, Horschel was 1-over par after the first round.
As always, Mother Nature is going to play a pretty big role at Royal Portrush this weekend.
It seems like Thursday afternoon will be challenging with rain and wind in the forecast. If a player with an afternoon start time gets through Round 1 with their head above water, it could be an indicator that they’re in sharper form than their score suggests.
It looks like Friday and Saturday will be generally pleasant, but Sunday will be tricky. Don’t be afraid to take a shot on a player three or four shots back of the leader, as Round 4 could be absolute carnage.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.