Post prop proprietor Dave Blezow is back with his annual picks to help you cash in with big payouts on Most Valuable Player, and league leaders in passing, rushing and receiving yards.
The NFL should rename this the Process of Elimination award.
Bettors can start by writing off any non-quarterback, as this honor has gone to a passer for 12 years in a row and 17 of the past 18.
In 2024, Saquon Barkley’s 2,005 rushing yards netted zero first-place votes, so that’s all you need to know.
Beyond that, feel free to ignore at least 25 starting QBs.
Only four active players have won the award — Aaron Rodgers (four times), Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson (twice each), and Josh Allen (last season).
Forget Rodgers and consider the other three plus Joe Burrow.
He most likely will have the best numbers and voters will want to support Burrow if he can elevate the Bengals back into Super Bowl contention.
Down the odds board, Jalen Hurts and Jared Goff lead top teams but seem to get little credit, and Baker Mayfield went unrewarded for his stellar 2024 stats.
Can Jayden Daniels and C.J. Stroud continue their upward trajectories?
WINNER: Joe Burrow (+600, FanDuel)
HIM AGAIN! Lamar Jackson (+550, Caesars)
JOIN THE CLUB: Jared Goff (40/1, BetMGM)
Possibly the most interesting stat from 2024 was that MVP Josh Allen finished 14th in passing yards.
Three of the top eight in this category from last season (Geno Smith, Sam Darnold and Rodgers) have changed teams. Burrow topped the list with 4,918 yards, brings back Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and should be on a mission.
Goff was second with 4,629, and although he returns his top weapons, he’ll have to adjust to losing Ben Johnson as his play-caller.
I doubt Mayfield will do better than his 71.4 completion percentage and 4,500 yards.
Justin Herbert plays for a run-first team and Brock Purdy lost some receivers. Dak Prescott should be in the mix if he can stay healthy.
WINNER: Joe Burrow +490 (BetMGM)
WING & PRAYER: Dak Prescott +950 (BetMGM)
BEAR IN THE AIR Caleb Williams 18/1 (30/1, Caesars)
Is this a two-man race between the incredible Barkley (2,005 yards and 125.3 ypg in 2024) and the indestructible Derrick Henry (1,921 and 113.0)? Probably, but bettors would have to take pause — and see some opportunity — in Barkley’s history of injuries and Henry’s 2,355 career carries.
No. 3 Bijan Robinson had 1,456 yards but only 85.6 ypg. No. 5 Jahmyr Gibbs logged 1,412 yards and 83.1 ypg.
There’s hope for No. 4 Jonathan Taylor, who rolled up 1,431 yards in 14 games (102.2 ypg). That production for 17 games would at least put him into position to catch Barkley and Henry if they should slip a little.
Down the list, Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty might be worth a splash at 18/1 if he’s the next big thing.
WINNER Derrick Henry (+500, FanDuel)
HOT ON THEIR HEELS: Jonathan Taylor +900 (BetRivers)
UNKNOWN QUANTITY: Ashton Jeanty (18/1, Caesars)
The Chase is on, but can anyone catch Ja’Marr in this category?
The top two receivers far and away in 2024 were the Bengals great (1,708 yards at 100.5 ypg) and Justin Jefferson (1,533 yards at 90.2 ypg).
The key difference between those two this season is Chase has Burrow locked and loaded, while Jefferson has to break in first-year starter J.J. McCarthy.
This market might end up being a bet for show, but if there are players who could jump to the top, I’d look for those with improved quarterback situations such as Malik Nabers (gets Russell Wilson and a deep passing game), Brock Bowers (Smith an upgrade), and CeeDee Lamb (Prescott healthy).
And don’t forget Puka Nacua, who averaged 90 ypg in 11 games.
WINNER Ja’Marr Chase (+600, FanDuel)
BLUE BOMBER: Malik Nabers (10/1, Caesars)
LET IT STRIP! Brock Bowers (35/1, FanDuel)
In 2024, these side props went 2-2.
We hit on the Chargers Over 8.5 wins (they had 11) and Patriots Under 4.5 wins (four), and lost with Daniel Jones Over 2,675.5 passing yards (2,070) and Keon Coleman Over 650.5 receiving yards (556).
The six-year record is 14-10 heading into these four predictions:
TreVeyon Henderson Over 700.5 yards rushing (-110): The OSU rookie has a great situation in Foxborough with a quarterback (Drake Maye) who’s a threat, a coach (Mike Vrabel) who likes to run it and a big back (Rhamondre Stevenson) who will soften up defenses.
Giants Over 5.5 wins (+100): Grabbing even money on the Giants going at least 6-11. That’s double the wins from the disastrous 100th season, but they left quite a few Ws on the table.
Caleb Williams Over 3,625 passing yards (-114): Williams threw for 3,561 yards last season and now has Lions OC Ben Johnson calling the plays. DJ Moore, Cole Kmet, Rome Odunze and a bolstered offensive line will help.
Commanders Under 9.5 wins (-110): So much went right for them in 2024 to go 12-5. Tough schedule and greater respect from opponents brings regression.
Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back 31 years. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.