It can feel like Round 1 of the NFL Draft is a foregone conclusion by the time we get to the start of the show.
The news cycle around the draft is omnipresent, and mock drafting is more of a science than an art these days, so it feels like on-stage surprises are a rarity.
But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t expect – or bet on – a few shockers.
After all, it was just a year ago that Michael Penix went to the Falcons at No. 8 despite Atlanta having 66/1 odds to pick him there.
Who will be this year’s version of Penix?
Here are my three favorite long-shot bets for Round 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft.
Travis Hunter is the favorite to go to the Cleveland Browns at No. 2 overall, but there’s enough smoke around this pick to go in a couple of different directions and try to make some money.
The Browns own +200 odds at BetMGM to be the team to select Sanders, but he’s 22/1 at the same spot. That’s because it’s expected that, should the Browns stick at No. 2, they’d select Hunter.
However, these are the Cleveland Browns. They’ve needed a franchise quarterback since the 80s, and the easiest way for them to acquire one would be to select Sanders in this spot.
If the Browns are OK with trading back in order to draft a quarterback, there is a chance they swap picks with the Raiders, the team that has been connected with Ashton Jeanty the most by mock drafters.
The Raiders pick sixth overall, and there’s nobody between them and the Browns that would likely take Sanders, so the Browns could feel safe moving back and accruing more assets.
Jeanty is 150/1 to go No. 2 overall, but his odds dip precipitously with each following pick, meaning the Raiders may need to cut the line to get their guy.
It’s 150/1, so it’s very likely not going to win, but it’s worth a small sprinkle.
The Jets seem like the most likely landing spot for Armand Membou, but this price warrants some consideration given Jacksonville’s situation.
The Jaguars have plenty of holes to fill, but their most pressing need is to find a way to protect Trevor Lawrence.
If we’re assuming that Will Campbell, the highest-rated offensive lineman in the draft, is off the board, that could put Jacksonville in a position to take Membou at No. 5 instead of a defensive player like Mason Graham.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.