Do you remember … last September?
What about the September(s) before that? In the betting world, money talks, and numbers never lie.
If you think that your chalky moneyline parlay of the Commanders, Bengals, and Cardinals is a lock to make you some easy money, think again.
Early favorites are liars — we’ve seen nothing from any team. So come in here with an open mind, because anything is possible.
Let’s take a look at the early-season betting trends that you need to read before placing a single against-the-spread wager this year.
All things considered, September is where things get weird throughout the league.
The early fall season is the time to take your shots; don’t sit here parlaying the favorites. History says you won’t come out with a profit.
Favorites are not the play early on, but that doesn’t mean you need to bail on them throughout the season. While underdogs are profitable early, it is wise to cut bait as the season progresses.
In December 2024, the favorites went an obscene 56-17 straight up, the second-highest percentage in NFL history, according to ESPN.
Starting in Week 12, around Thanksgiving, favorites began cleaning up, particularly road favorites.
Road favorites covered 58.1 percent of the time last season. Another trend to watch: Road favorites off a bye went 76-53-4 ATS (59 percent) since 2004.
You’ll see the Lions a lot in here as a bet that has a lot of trends behind it. Detroit faces the Packers in Green Bay in Week 1 as underdogs despite being a far better team throughout the regular season in 2024.
Of further interest, the Falcons are 2.5-point underdogs against the division rival Buccaneers, while the Browns are massive 6-point underdogs at home against the Bengals.
Could the Giants (+6) fit this bill as well against the NFC power Commanders? Plenty of options with Week 1 being an increasingly tricky board.
Short underdogs are a strong bet in Week 1, but perhaps not worth betting on against the spread and better off wagering on the moneyline all things considered.
Underdogs of 3 or fewer in Week 1 consist of the Jets (+3) vs. the Steelers; Falcons (+2.5) vs. the Buccaneers; Raiders (+3) at Patriots; Panthers (+3) at Jaguars; Seahawks (+2.5) at 49ers; Lions (+1.5) at Packers; Texans (+2.5) at Rams; and Ravens (+1.5) at Bills.
Bet accordingly and expect to come out profitable.
Underdog bettors were making money hand over fist in Week 1, especially on big dogs.
A few big underdogs to look at in the first three weeks with lines available via DraftKings:
Week 1: Cowboys (+7) at Eagles; Giants (+6) at Commanders; Browns (+6) vs. Bengals; Saints (+6) vs. Cardinals; and Titans (+7.5) vs. Broncos.
Week 2: Jets (+8.5) vs. Bills; Browns (+12.5) at Ravens; Saints (+7) vs. 49ers; Titans (+5.5) vs. Rams; Jaguars (+5.5) at Bengals.
Week 3: Dolphins (+8.5) at Bills; Browns (+5.5) vs. Packers; Jets (+7.5) at Buccaneers; Saints (+6.5) at Seahawks; Giants (+6.5) vs. Chiefs.
If you’re looking to dive into the player prop betting market, you’d be foolish not to follow a few key betting trends.
Receivers whose route participation is above 80 percent exceed their yardage props at 60 percent, compared to under for the 70 percent of receivers with a route participation below 80 percent.
Carries aren’t everything for running backs: Bet on rushing+receiving props for running backs that receive a 15 percent or greater target share in their offense.
Target QB rushing props, especially scramble percent stats: In 2023, QBs with five or more designed runs per game went over their rushing yards prop 64 percent of the time, per Action Network.
Take advantage of defensive player prop betting in 2025: A newer and expanding form of betting, keep a close eye on pass block win rates. EDGE rushers facing offensive lines in the bottom five of ESPN’s pass block win rate stat cashed sack overs 62 percent of the time since 2021.
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.