SARATOGA SPRINGS — The 2025 Belmont Stakes is being billed as a heavyweight fight between Sovereignty, the winner of the Kentucky Derby running out of the No. 2 post, and Journalism, the Preakness winner and Derby runner-up running out of the No. 7 post.
The oddsmakers could barely separate the two horses, identifying Journalism as the 8-5 favorite on the morning line, but putting Sovereignty right behind at 2-1.
When you convert those odds to implied probabilities, you get a 38.5 percent chance that Journalism finishes first, and a 33.3 percent chance that we see Sovereignty in the winner’s circle.
In other words, the odds are telling us that there’s nearly a 75 percent chance that the winner of this race will be one of the two favorites.
That poses an interesting predicament for handicappers. Whom do you pick?
And how do you best set up a betting card based on the horse you’re backing, whether it’s Journalism, Sovereignty or none of the above?
If you think Journalism is going to be your winner …
Journalism proved at the Preakness that he can win a race no matter what the horse racing gods throw at him.
He was bumped and squeezed at the quarter-turn at Pimlico, but fought his way through the chaos to nip Gosger for the win. It was a remarkable effort.
He also ran an impressive race at the Derby, just to be passed by Sovereignty, who will be a threat to do so again on Saturday.
The presence of Sovereignty in this field does change how I think Michael McCarthy and Umberto Rispoli will approach this race.
I think Rispoli will hold back Journalism a bit longer, preventing a repeat of what we saw at the Derby, where Sovereignty had enough runway to catch him.
That kind of race setup would benefit No. 6 Baeza, another stalker, and potentially No. 5 Crudo, who will likely be near the lead, but behind No. 3 Rodriguez out of the gate.
Trifecta box: 5-6-7.
If you think Sovereignty is going to be your winner …
The Kentucky Derby is always chaotic, but a sloppy track added to the volatility on the first Saturday of May.
Somehow, Sovereignty was completely unaffected by the havoc at Churchill Downs and ran a flawless trip, aided by the pace setup.
There was a lot of pace in the Derby, which allowed Sovereignty to sit back in the mid-pack, which is exactly what this elite closer wants.
If you are convinced that Sovereignty is going to win the Belmont, you’re expecting Saturday’s headliner to set up similarly, with Rodriguez, Crudo, and perhaps Baeza setting a cracking pace, while Sovereignty remains in his office.
Once they turn down the stretch, Sovereignty will make his move, hoping that the pace was too hot to sustain for the front-runners, leaving him to duke it out with Journalism and another closer like No. 1 Hill Road.
Tying Sovereignty to Journalism is no way to land a big score, but Hill Road opened at 10-1 and should drift further as money piles up on the top three contenders.
Exacta box: 1-2.
If you think someone else is going to be your winner …
The best path to an upset Saturday is to go gate-to-wire, and the two horses that have the chance of pulling that off are Rodriguez and Crudo.
Though Rodriguez will rightfully be the trendier horse, Crudo is going to be a much bigger price, plus he just wired the field at the Sir Barton Stakes on Preakness Day.
Repeating that feat in this race will be unlikely, but you’re going to get a big enough number to have a sprinkle on Todd Pletcher’s best shot for his fifth Belmont win.
Win: 5.
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.