Frances Tiafoe seems to love this part of the tennis calendar.

Not only has the American gone to the semifinals in two of the last three US Opens, but he also was a runner-up at the 2024 Cincinnati Masters.

Tiafoe’s 2025 campaign has been a mixed bag overall, but he had a similar output the last couple of years before peaking during the late summer.

Tiafoe is a +110 underdog against Holger Rune in the Round of 16 in Cincinnati on Wednesday.

Tiafoe has turned into one of the most watchable players on the ATP Tour thanks to his aggressive style and athletic ability.

He’s got plenty of power, but the Maryland native also has a deft touch at the net and is a creative shot-maker. It’s hard to profile his game because he can do so many things well when he is clicking.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that Tiafoe has figured out how to get his game working at this time of year, since he’s from the Mid-Atlantic and will not be a stranger to the hot, humid conditions in the States in August.

Rune, meanwhile, seemingly runs into problems in physical matches, especially in challenging conditions.

There is no doubt about the Dane’s immense talent, but he tends to flail when things get a bit uncomfortable.

Tiafoe witnessed this firsthand at this event last year, defeating the Dane in three sets in a memorable semifinal.

Rune may be the more talented, dynamic player, but the conditions and the crowd will suit Tiafoe more than the World No. 9.

This should be a dramatic match, and the player who is more likely to unravel in this environment is the favorite.

We’ll go the other way.

The Play: Frances Tiafoe (+110, bet365)

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.