The outlook for the ACC feels clearer than any of the other Power 4 conferences in 2025.

The best team in the conference is obvious.

The biggest story in the conference is obvious.

You’d think that handicapping this conference would be rather straightforward, but the truth is that nothing is simple in the new era of college football.

Yes, Clemson is deserving of its status as the runaway favorite in the ACC, but that doesn’t mean that it’s a foregone conclusion.

At this time last year, Florida State was the favorite to top the conference and was a trendy pick to win the whole shabang.

The Seminoles went 2-10 and finished last in the conference at 1-7.

Clemson would eventually win the ACC, but the Tigers started the season with a 34-3 loss to Georgia; there weren’t many folks backing them to be the last team standing after that performance.

So while it may be tempting to plunk a chunk down on Clemson, it behooves you to take a hard look at some other teams.

There will always be some lofty prices out there when there’s such a firm favorite at the top of a volatile market.

Dabo Swinney has been unapologetic about how he’s running the show at Clemson.

Rather than raid the transfer portal each offseason, Swinney has remained steadfast in his belief that development and continuity are the best paths to success.

His philosophy drew plenty of critics, but last year those skeptics began to quiet down as Clemson won the ACC Championship game and made it to the College Football Playoff.

One year later, nobody is poking fun at Swinney or the Tigers. Clemson leads the country in returning production, and senior quarterback Cade Klubnik is one of the favorites to win the Heisman.

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Not only is Clemson the clear favorite to win the ACC, but the Tigers are also -200 to make the Playoff, trailing only Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Penn State for the shortest odds to qualify for the dance.

On paper, there’s very little not to like about Clemson going into the new season, but the one concern I have is that the schedule is tougher than it may seem.

Putting aside their Week 1 brouhaha with LSU and their traditional curtain-closer with South Carolina, the Tigers have tough ACC road tilts with Georgia Tech and Louisville, plus a visit to UNC to take on Bill Belichick.

Clemson avoids Miami, but a three-game homestand against SMU, Duke and Florida State could be trickier than the odds will imply.

You have to look pretty deep to find the landmines for this team, which is why they’re such a clear favorite, but the number is just too short to be worth a bet given how volatile the ACC proved to be last year.

You may think that if you’re passing on Clemson, you should bet on Miami, but the truth is that I’d rather trust Swinney and the Tigers at a shorter price than Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes.

Miami is the only team in the ACC with the talent to stand up to Clemson on paper, but Cristobal has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory so many times in his career that it’s impossible to trust him.

The Canes were 9-0 to start last year and looked like a shoo-in for the Playoff before losing to Georgia Tech and Syracuse at home in ugly, uninspired performances.

Cristobal has to earn a lot more trust, especially now that he doesn’t have Cam Ward to win him games on his own.

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SMU, Louisville and Georgia Tech are the projected gatecrashers, but none of them stand out as solid betting options in this market.

Louisville’s roster underwent a ton of change in the offseason, and the Cardinals have a tough conference schedule.

SMU has a Heisman sleeper, Kevin Jennings, under center, but they lost a lot of playmakers from 2024 and too have a brutal schedule.

Georgia Tech’s resurgence is a wonderful story, and offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner could be the best in the country, but the narrative surrounding the Ramblin’ Wreck has seeped into the market and taken all the value out of the Yellow Jackets.

In fact, there isn’t much of a difference between Georgia Tech and a couple of teams being offered at triple and quadruple the price.

One of those teams, NC State, is coming into the season without any real fanfare after being a trendy pick to win the ACC in 2024.

Last year, it was supposed to be the defense that drove the bus for the Wolfpack, but that unit was underwhelming, dooming NC State to a mediocre season.

An improvement from the defense, and a step forward from exciting sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey, and NC State could outrun their odds against a very manageable schedule.

The Wolfpack have a tricky stretch run against Georgia Tech, Miami, Florida State and UNC, but the first handful of ACC games are winnable and could put them in a terrific position to make a charge to the title game.

NC State is a very tempting bet at 40/1 odds.

The same can’t be said of UNC.

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While there is certainly a chance that Bill Belichick’s genius translates to the college ranks, there are just too many unknowns for the Tar Heels to be worth a sprinkle at a similar or shorter price than Duke, NC State, Virginia Tech and/or Florida State.

The one bet that could be a fun way to get involved with UNC is backing quarterback Gio Lopez to throw for the most passing yards in the conference.

Lopez tossed for 2,559 yards at South Alabama last year and Belichick does have a reputation for getting the most out of his quarterbacks.

I could also be talked into buying low on Florida State after a moribund 2024 campaign, but you can probably wait until after Week 1 against Alabama and get an even bigger number, assuming the Seminoles fall short.

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.