With the 2024 Super Bowl matchup officially set, it’s time to dive into who will be hoisting the Pete Rozelle trophy as the game’s Most Valuable Player.
Caesars Sportsbook is pinging quarterback Patrick Mahomes as the Super Bowl MVP (+140) favorite despite the Chiefs being slight underdogs. He is followed by Niners quarterback Brock Purdy (+230).
Right behind Purdy is do-it-all running back Christian McCaffrey (+375), before a large drop-off to Travis Kelce (11/1).
A quarterback historically wins this award, with 12 claiming it (71 percent) over the past 17 Super Bowls.
The other five in that stretch since 2006 featured three receivers and two linebackers.
But receivers have been trending in the right direction recently, as Cooper Kupp and Julian Edelman are responsible for two of the past five MVP winners.
| Player (odds) | Implied probability |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (+140) | 41.67 percent |
| Brock Purdy (+230) | 30.3 percent |
| Christian McCaffrey (+375) | 21.05 percent |
| Travis Kelce (11/1) | 8.33 percent |
| Deebo Samuel (25/1) | 3.85 percent |
| Isiah Pacheco (28/1) | 3.45 percent |
| Brandon Aiyuk (50/1) | 1.96 percent |
| George Kittle (50/1) | 1.96 percent |
| Nick Bosa (60/1) | 1.64 percent |
| Rashee Rice (60/1) | 1.64 percent |
| Chris Jones (75/1) | 1.32 percent |
| Fred Warner (100/1) | 0.99 percent |
The last two defensive players to win were Seattle linebacker Malcolm Smith, who had a defensive touchdown and a fumble recovery to win the award in Super Bowl 2014 and Denver linebacker Von Miller, whose 2.5 sacks and six tackles earned him top honors at Super Bowl 2016.
Down lineman pass rushers haven’t won a Super Bowl MVP since Richard Dent of the Chicago Bears at Super Bowl 1986. So, historically, you can nearly eliminate Chiefs stud interior lineman Chris Jones.
Nick Bosa wouldn’t necessarily qualify as a down lineman, though, as he plays a very similar position as Miller did for the dominant 2015-2016 Broncos unit.
A running back hasn’t been named Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in 1998.