Francisco Lindor is the MVP of the Mets, but don’t expect that to translate to National League honors.
Oddsmakers across the betting market, including those at DraftKings Sportsbook, have Lindor as a wide +500 underdog to win the NL MVP award, with favorite Shohei Ohtani coming in at -900 odds.
This is despite Lindor being the NL leader in Fangraphs WAR with 7.4, ahead of Ohtani’s 7.0. Ohtani has a 7.4-6.4 edge in Baseball Reference’s WAR.
Adding to the intrigue is that no player in major league history (since the inception of the designated hitter in 1973) has ever won the MVP award without also being a pitcher.
Is this season by Ohtani that much better than the historical precedent?
Ohtani is projected to 52 home runs with 115 RBIs and 53 stolen bases, and is hitting .292 with an NL-best .992 OPS.
The Japanese star has Lindor beat in every major offensive statistic and it could be hard to vote against him if he registers the first 50-homer, 50-steal season in MLB history.
Ohtani has 47 homers and 48 steals with 16 games remaining.
The argument for Lindor is rooted in the defensive value he provides, in addition to his elite offense.
Lindor is the third-best fielder regardless of position in all of baseball, according to Fangraphs.
For the “clutch” stat lovers out there, Lindor is the 20th-most clutch player in baseball, per Fangraphs, while Ohtani ranks 541st.
| Statistic | Shohei Ohtani | Francisco Lindor |
|---|---|---|
| Average | .292 | .268 |
| OPS | .992 | .831 |
| Runs | 116 | 102 |
| Home Runs | 47 | 31 |
| RBI | 104 | 85 |
| Stolen Bases | 48 | 27 |
| Fangraphs WAR | 7.0 | 7.4 |
| Baseball Reference WAR | 7.4 | 6.5 |
The closest a designated hitter got to winning the MVP award was in 2005, when David Ortiz garnered 307 voting points compared to Alex Rodriguez’s 331.
Rodriguez rightly won that, considering his WAR was 9.4, far higher than any other player, including Ortiz’s 5.2.
Still, Ortiz put up 47 home runs and 148 RBIs, with a .300 average and a 1.001 OPS.
Ohtani is not pitching this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and is expected to return to the mound in 2025.
Health permitting, Ohtani will probably win this award going away next season and will be favored in future. He won the 2021 and 2023 AL MVP awards with the Angels.