The 2024 running back class isn’t defined by a Bijan Robinson- or Saquon Barkley-level prospect that evaluators will compete over on Day 1 of the NFL Draft.
In fact, you can find steep -1600 odds on DraftKings for zero running backs to come off the board in the first round.
The continued devaluation of the position and the lack of elite talent at the top of the class make this an overlooked group. And a competitive race to see which running back will be drafted first.
While this class lacks top-level first-round talent, a running back will hear his name called at some point, most likely on Friday when Rounds 2-3 take place.
Let’s look at the odds for the first running back to be drafted and make a prediction for which one it will be.
| Player | College | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathon Brooks | Texas | -150 |
| Trey Benson | Florida State | +300 |
| Blake Corum | Michigan | +450 |
| MarShawn Lloyd | USC | +700 |
| Jaylen Wright | Tennessee | +900 |
Be sure to give yourself multiple outs if you’re betting into this market, as the odds can vary significantly.
Jonathon Brooks is the consensus favorite, but Trey Benson is priced at +220 on DraftKings compared to +300 on BetMGM and FanDuel.
Meanwhile, MarShawn Lloyd is as high as +900 on FanDuel compared to +700 on BetMGM.
After waiting for an opportunity behind Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson at Texas, Brooks showcased excellent talent as a redshirt sophomore.
In 11 games before a season-ending torn ACL, he racked up 1,135 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns at an impressive 6.1 yards per carry.
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has Brooks ranked as his RB1, calling him a “springy, balanced athlete with a feel for lane development and the elusive traits to create his own yardage, both at the line of scrimmage and on the second level.”
Brugler compared him to Kenyan Drake, while NFL Network’s Lance Zierlein compared him to Jamaal Charles.
Brooks started running just 12 weeks after the torn ACL and his stated timeline is to be ready by the start of training camp.
If teams feel comfortable that he can regain his pre-injury form, it’s easy to see why he’s the projected top running back in this class.
Benson possesses elite track speed and acceleration, with the ability to convert that speed to power and break tackles. However, his change of direction and vision less than ideal, and his pass-catching isn’t at the top of this class.
NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah ranked Benson 91st in his final top 150 prospect rankings, making him the fifth-ranked running back in the class. Brugler, meanwhile, has him third, stating that his upright running style and inconsistent vision could be problematic.
Many evaluators see Benson as more of a committee back and not a true three-down workhorse in the NFL, so it’s unlikely he’s the first one off the board.
A First-Team All-American in 2022, Corum finished his career with 56 rushing touchdowns, the most in Michigan history.
At the end of the 2022 season, Corum tore his meniscus, and that sapped some of his explosiveness in 2023. His yards per attempt dropped from 5.9 in 2022 to 4.8 last season.
However, Corum’s field vision and contact balance are second to none in this class, and he’s a relentless athlete who has worked hard to return from the meniscus injury.
His lack of size limits his pass-protection viability, and he lacked an expansive receiving role at Michigan, so his three-down versatility is a question mark.
Corum was Brugler’s RB2 in this class and Jeremiah’s RB4, so he’ll be one of the top names off the board.
He’s been listed as a favorite to be drafted by the Chargers on DraftKings, and it’s easy to see his former coach, Jim Harbaugh, coveting him somewhere on Day 2 or 3.
While he wasn’t an every-down back for USC last season, Lloyd led this draft class with 7.1 yards per attempt.
He was one of five FBS running backs with 100-plus carries to average more than 7 yards per catch, and his blend of short-area quickness and lateral agility make him a dynamic open-field threat.
Lloyd wasn’t used much as a receiver at USC, but he has electric YAC ability and has a promising upside in that department.
While he likely won’t be a high-volume back in the NFL, this class lacks players with true three-down ability.
Jeremiah has Lloyd ranked 56th overall in his top 150, making him the RB1 in this class. I’d be interested in taking a flier on him as the first back drafted, particularly at his listed +900 odds at FanDuel.
Jaylen Wright, an accomplished track runner in high school, showcased his elite athleticism with a 9.75 RAS, ranking 44th out of 1,745 running backs since 1987.
Wright ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash and clocked in at 15.16 miles per hour in the first 5 yards, which is faster than De’Von Achane last season.
Wright also recorded an 11-foot-2 broad jump, the second-best mark of all time for a running back at the NFL combine.
Last season at Tennessee, he averaged 4.35 yards after contact per attempt, and his 7.4 YPC ranked second among running backs with 100-plus carries.
Just a one-year starter at Tennessee, Wright is still learning the ropes of the running back position.
His inconsistent vision could cause his stock to drop in the draft. Still, his top-end speed is an undeniable calling card.
Teams will have varying opinions on Brooks’ medical status coming off the torn ACL, which generates an opportunity to take some fliers on other names in this class.
Plus, at -150, there’s not much value on Brooks. Instead, my favorite bet is Lloyd to be the first running back drafted at 9-1 on FanDuel.