The NFL Draft is just a few days away, with the first round kicking off Thursday.
My latest mock draft is heavily driven by the current betting markets, which are constantly fluctuating leading up to draft night.
Be sure to give yourself multiple outs if you’re planning to bet on the draft, as the odds can vary significantly across different sportsbooks.
I’m surprised sportsbooks are still offering odds on Williams here, and you can find him at -20000 across the market. The Bears get their franchise quarterback of the future.
The odds for this pick have continued to fluctuate, and you can now find Maye priced as low as +120 to be the selection for the Commanders. Jayden Daniels remains the favorite, but I’ve remained hesitant to buy in on the smoke surrounding the LSU product. Washington has done an excellent job keeping this close to the vest, and Maye is my QB2 in this class.
A trade down here is possible, and de facto GM Eliot Wolf told reporters that the team is “open for business” on trades. However, I believe the Patriots will stay in this spot and pick a quarterback. While J.J. McCarthy could surprise some people here, Daniels would be the favorite if Maye goes No. 2.
The Cardinals are building around Kyler Murray, and they desperately need a top-end wide receiver for him to throw to. Harrison demands respect from opposing defenses and would be the best wide receiver in Arizona since Larry Fitzgerald.
Malik Nabers remains the favorite for this selection, but the Vikings have been a prime trade-up candidate since they acquired the Texans’ first-round pick in a trade earlier this offseason. McCarthy has been one of the biggest risers in the pre-draft process, and Minnesota would be an ideal landing spot for him. For the sake of simplicity here, I’m trading the Vikings’ two first-round picks at No. 11 and No. 23 to the Chargers. I’d consider a bet on McCarthy being the No. 5 pick at +450 on FanDuel, with other books pricing this as low as +250.
The Giants pivot to wide receiver with the top three quarterbacks off the board. New York hasn’t had a Pro Bowl receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. in 2016. Nabers and Rome Odunze both have that kind of upside, but Nabers is the favorite for this pick, currently priced at +150 on DraftKings.
The Titans should be thrilled if Alt falls to them, as the odds currently dictate. Alt, who is -175 to be the No. 7 pick, is the best offensive tackle prospect in this draft class and would significantly upgrade a Tennessee offensive line that badly needs help.
I view this Atlanta pick as a prime trade-up spot. The Bears would be thrilled to take Odunze at No. 9, and the Jets know they need to jump Chicago to get their guy. Odunze is an elite contested-catch receiver and underrated route-runner who fills a need for New York with limited talent at wide receiver outside of Garrett Wilson.
If the Jets jump the Bears for Odunze, they’d likely look to address a clear need at the edge. Dallas Turner and Laiatu Latu currently dominate the market for the first defensive player drafted. Still, Verse is a better fit for Matt Eberflus’s 4-3 scheme than Turner and doesn’t have the medical red flags that Latu does. Verse is priced as low as +300 to be the No. 9 pick on BetMGM.
Over the last week, we’ve seen the market steam toward Latu in multiple ways. For my money, Latu has the best film of any defensive player in this class and is an incredibly polished pass rusher. Falcons defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake was at Washington when Latu medically retired, giving him an inside track on understanding Latu’s medical prognosis. If Latu’s medicals check out, he’s a top-10 talent.
The Chargers are -175 on DraftKings to take an offensive lineman with their first pick. Here, they add one of the most powerful players in this class to address their desire to become a more physical football team under Jim Harbaugh.
One of the most challenging teams to pin down, the Broncos have several needs as they enter a rebuilding phase after the failed Russell Wilson experiment. Denver needs a pass-rush boost, and Turner provides an elite upside with remarkable athletic traits.
While they’d love to move up for a quarterback, the Raiders miss out on the top four at the position. Instead, they bolster their offensive line with Fautanu, a local kid from Henderson, Nevada, who was a First-Team All-Pac 12 offensive tackle last season.
The Saints’ desperate need for an offensive tackle is perhaps the worst-kept secret of the draft. They’re currently priced at -400 on DraftKings to take an O-lineman with their first pick. Fashanu provides a much-needed boost to their pass protection.
Currently priced at +110 on DraftKings to take a cornerback with their first pick, it’s easy to see the Colts falling in love with Mitchell. General manager Chris Ballard gravitates toward elite athletic testers, and Mitchell came in with a stellar 9.75 Relative Athletic Score (RAS).
While they’re expected to be involved in the offensive tackle market, the Seahawks are +140 to take a defensive line/edge with their first pick. Murphy is an explosive penetrating three-technique whom new head coach Mike MacDonald could coach to great success after leading Justin Madubuike to an All-Pro season in Baltimore.
DraftKings has the Jaguars priced at -185 to draft a cornerback with their first pick, but it will be tough to pass on Thomas given their need at wide receiver following the loss of Calvin Ridley in free agency.
While the Bengals are hungry for offensive line help, it would be tough to pass up adding an exceptional YAC threat in Bowers. This is the same front office that took Ja’Marr Chase over Penei Sewell a few years ago, and they could follow suit here if Bowers slides.
In his recent mock draft, Peter Schrager wrote, “You better believe Sean McVay’s first-ever first-round selection will be an offensive player.” I’ll lean into that sentiment here with Latham, a plug-and-play fit at tackle or guard for the Rams.
Currently priced at -350 to draft an offensive lineman on DraftKings, the Steelers land Mims, the best tackle left on the board. He restarts his partnership with fellow former Georgia tackle Broderick Jones in Pittsburgh.
Another offensive lineman comes off the board here, with Barton representing an excellent fit for a Miami offensive line that has struggled to stay healthy in recent seasons.
A Swiss army knife in the secondary, DeJean would move all over the formation in Vic Fangio’s defense. His explosive kick-return viability is an intriguing boost to his profile, particularly with the new return rules.
Cornerback stands as one of the Chargers’ biggest needs. Arnold would be a great fit for new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter’s system, with excellent physicality and ball production from the slot or the boundary.
The Cowboys need to upgrade their interior offensive line, given how often Mike McCarthy wants to run the ball on early downs. Powers-Johnson is a big-time people-mover in the run game, with powerful hands and a mean disposition.
While it’s not a glaring need, the Packers are now -170 on DraftKings to take an offensive lineman with their first pick. Guyton is a fascinating prospect with elite athleticism and plenty of high-upside developmental traits.
The Buccaneers have continued to see atrophy in their pass-rushing corps from the dominant group that helped them win the Super Bowl. Robinson offers immense upside with his freaky athletic traits and impressive explosiveness off the line of scrimmage.
With a massive upgrade at wide receiver headed to Arizona, the Cardinals turn to the other side of the ball with Robinson, who offers intriguing versatility on the defensive line.
Buffalo is priced as a -280 favorite to take a wide receiver with their first pick in the draft, and it’s an obvious need after the Stefon Diggs trade. While the production profile raises some concerns, Mitchell offers the ideal size, speed and physicality for an offense that needs a true X-receiver.
The Lions are a wild card in the first round, as four different positions are priced with odds of +300 or shorter on DraftKings. Here, I’ll slot in Newton, who offers impressive pass-rushing potential in the NFL with his blend of agility and power.
The Ravens have a sneaky need for a cornerback, and it would be tough to pass up Wiggins’ elite speed and coverage talent if he’s still available.
Whether Morgan plays tackle or guard in the NFL, his smooth movement and football IQ will make him a coveted player toward the end of the first round.
The Chiefs have been linked to wide receivers throughout the pre-draft process, but after the L’Jarius Sneed trade, cornerback might be an even bigger need. Sneed won’t be easy to replace, but McKinstry could be a Day 1 starter in the Kansas City secondary.