One of the hottest football futures markets is offering odds on teams to make the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. 

In years past, Group of Five teams had nearly no shot of making the four-team field.

In fact, out of 40 CFP participants between 2014 and 2023, just one came from the G5 (Cincinnati, 2021).

But now, at least for 2024 and 2025, the top-ranked G5 champion is guaranteed a spot in the field. 

As with any relatively new market, both sportsbooks and the public are not exactly sure how to operate. That creates value for shrewd bettors hoping to create a portfolio of futures. 

In the preseason, I grabbed Appalachian State, Boise State, Memphis, and Texas State to make the CFP at odds ranging from +450 to 16/1.

What I was hoping for in the first few weeks of the season was to add a few feisty long shots in the 20/1 to 40/1 range. After Week 1, it’s clear one team is significantly mispriced in the market. 

UNLV won nine games last season, clearing the eight-win threshold for the first time since Randall Cunningham donned the scarlet and gray back in the mid-’80s.

The Rebels did it with a surprisingly good offense (34.4 points per game, ranked 22nd) piloted by a relatively unknown redshirt freshman from Hawaii. 

Jayden Maiava went from a lightly recruited three-star to a sought-after transfer-portal passer.

After receiving just one other FBS scholarship offer in 2020, he was the belle of the ball last winter. After committing to Georgia, he settled on USC. 

The loss of its star quarterback seemingly threw cold water on UNLV’s CFP hopes for 2024.

But coach Barry Odom and his wunderkind offensive coordinator, Brennan Marion, had a plan. 

They signed two dynamic FCS quarterbacks, one from Campbell and another from Holy Cross.

Neither signing made national waves, but both Hajj-Malik Williams (Campbell) and Matt Sluka (Holy Cross) were perfect fits for Marion’s Go-Go Offense.

After winning the job in fall camp, Sluka got a chance to prove the UNLV offense was in good hands. 

Sluka, a former Walter Payton Award finalist, looked sharp on the road against a Power Four opponent on Saturday.

He connected on two touchdown passes and ran for 59 yards in a 27-7 road victory over Houston. 

But the reason why I’m ready to pull the trigger on UNLV’s upside this season is its defensive improvements. 

Last season, in big moments, the defense imploded.

In the Mountain West title game, on their home field, the Rebels surrendered 527 yards and 44 points to Boise State. 

In the offseason, they added a handful of intriguing transfers. Jalen Catalon was one of the flashy blue-chip transfers to make the trek to Sin City, and his presence was felt immediately on Saturday.

The safety snagged a pair of interceptions, returning one for a touchdown 

Tony Grimes, formerly the top high school recruit in Virginia, manned the other safety spot for UNLV.

As a whole, the defense dominated Houston, running off Cougars starting quarterback Donovan Smith.

If you combined his QBR and PFF grades, he was the worst-performing P4 quarterback of Week 1. 

The offense continues to confuse opponents and the early returns from the defense are more than encouraging.

Their schedule also provides the Rebels with three big opportunities in the next six weeks with a road trip to No. 22 Kansas, and two home games against Syracuse and Boise State. 

This is the time to buy UNLV stock before its odds to make the CFP plummet.

PICK: UNLV makes CFP (22/1, Caesars)