Football in the Southeastern Conference just got a lot more interesting following the addition of Texas and Oklahoma to form a 16-team league.
With that many schools, the task of picking win totals became more challenging.
However, we can still make some firm assumptions based on each team’s returning production and overall performance from a year ago.
Jimbo Fisher’s reign in College Station is over after he went 45-25 (.642) and never won more than nine games in any of his six seasons.
Mike Elko replaces Fisher after leading Duke to back-to-back bowl games. While Elko’s move to the SEC certainly won’t be easy, he should benefit from having 18 returning starters.
The Aggies also have a very manageable SEC schedule, which doesn’t include Georgia and Alabama. Even their more difficult conference games (Texas and LSU) will be at home.
Elko overachieved with less talent at Duke, and now that he has better players the Aggies have a decent chance for a big season in his first year.
The Rebels have a win total of 9.5 but will avoid having to play Alabama. They should be big favorites in the first five weeks, and aside from a home game against Georgia, the only other tricky spot will be a road trip to LSU.
Not many teams can boast of having 20 returning starters like this Rebels team, which had one of the best offenses in college football last season, averaging 31.9 points per game.
Ole Miss’s biggest issue was largely on the defensive side of the ball when facing elite opponents like Georgia and Alabama. However, the Rebels should improve after potentially adding four starters on defense through the transfer portal.
When you combine the defensive upgrades with its weaker schedule, Ole Miss is a strong contender to exceed its projected win total.
After winning 10 games in Brent Venables’ second season, the Sooners will step up in class as they transition from the Big 12 to the SEC.
Jackson Arnold will likely replace Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, but the sophomore was a mixed bag in his lone start against Arizona in the Alamo Bowl (26-of-45 for 361 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions).
Oklahoma returns the second-fewest starters (two) on offense in the SEC, which doesn’t bode well for a team transitioning to an even tougher conference.
The biggest issue with Oklahoma’s win total of 7.5 is it faces a brutal schedule to end the season with road games against Missouri and LSU and a home game against Alabama.
With such a brutal stretch of games, the Sooners cannot afford any slip-ups early in their schedule. That’s simply too much pressure on a team that will be trying to figure things out with a young quarterback.
The adjustment to the Gators’ win total from 5.5 to 4.5 feels a little much, considering they return the second-most starters (14) in the SEC.
This is potentially a make-or-break season for Billy Napier, who is just 11-14 in Gainesville. I’d expect the Gators to show a tremendous amount of fight for their head coach.
Quarterback Graham Mertz threw for 2,903 yards as a redshirt junior. The Gators added Mertz’s former Wisconsin teammate, wide receiver Chimere Dike, who will line up alongside Arizona State transfer Elijhah Badger. This a decent buy-low spot to back the Over.
Texas A&M Over 8.5 wins (-120, BetMGM); Ole Miss Over 9.5 wins (-110, FanDuel); Oklahoma Under 7.5 wins (+100, BetMGM); Florida Over 4.5 wins (-150, BetMGM).