A new era is beginning in Tennessee this fall as five-star quarterback Nico Iamaleava begins his tenure as the starter in Knoxville.
The Volunteers finished 8-4 in the regular season last year before beating Iowa in the Citrus Bowl.
Now they turn to their redshirt freshman quarterback to get them in the expanded College Football Playoff.
Tennessee’s win total is currently set at 8.5 at most sportsbooks. On FanDuel, the Vols are 18/1 to win the SEC and 35/1 to win the national championship.
Let’s take a look at their personnel and schedule to see if there’s any betting value in the current futures markets.
Expectations are sky-high for Iamaleava, who was the second-rated player overall in the 2023 recruiting class and will take over for Joe Milton, who left a lot to be desired last year. A gifted athlete with a huge arm, Iamaleava should thrive in Josh Heupel’s offense.
Jaylen Wright is off to the NFL after rushing for more than 1,000 yards, but Dylan Sampson averaged 5.7 yards per carry last year, and sophomore Cameron Seldon is a former blue-chip recruit.
Leading wide receiver Squirrel White returns after logging more than 800 yards in 2023, and the Volunteers will hope Bru McCoy can stay on the field after playing in just five games a year ago.
Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell and former Oregon transfer Dont’e Thornton round out a formidable wideout room.
Tennessee’s offensive line returns three starters, and former five-star recruit Lance Heard is expected to slot in at left tackle.
The third-ranked tackle in the 2023 class, Heard didn’t give up a sack on 95 pass-blocking snaps as a true freshman for LSU last year, per PFF.
The defense will look a lot different this fall with just two of the top 12 players in snaps from last season returning.
One of those players is edge rusher James Pearce Jr., who ranked second in the Power Five in PFF’s pass-rush win rate metric. He’s a projected top-10 pick in next year’s draft.
Tennessee’s secondary undergoes a ton of transition. All six defensive backs with 300-plus snaps last season are gone.
Jourdan Thomas, who plays the “star” position in Tennessee’s nickel packages, is out for the year.
Transfers Jermod McCoy and Jakobe Thomas will be relied upon as starters, and true freshman Boo Carter could be thrust into a significant role.
The Vols project as double-digit favorites in non-conference play over Chattanooga, Kent State and UTEP.
They should also be significantly favored in home games against Kentucky and Mississippi State and road tilts against Arkansas and Vanderbilt.
However, a road game against N.C. State on Sept. 7 could be a tough spot, as Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren is known for giving inexperienced quarterbacks fits.
I’ll be looking to back N.C. State as a home underdog in that spot.
Road games against Oklahoma and Georgia will present serious challenges, while home games against Florida and Alabama in back-to-back weeks in October could test the mettle of this Volunteers team.
At 14/1 to win the Heisman on FanDuel, Iamaleava is tied for fourth on the odds board.
For a quarterback with 45 career attempts at the collegiate level, it’s difficult for me to buy in on Heisman hopes at that price.
With so much defensive turnover, particularly in the secondary, Tennessee could be in a lot of shoot-outs this season.
In conference play alone, quarterbacks Jackson Arnold, Graham Mertz, Jalen Milroe and Carson Beck could all cause problems for this secondary.
Recommendations: Tennessee Under 9 wins (-143, BetRivers) | Tennessee Under 5.5 conference wins (-182, BetRivers).
Jacob Wayne analyzes college football for Action Network.