The event formerly known as the Honda Classic is one of my favorite stops in the early part of the PGA Tour schedule.

It is now called the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, which doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue. 

Rory McIlroy headlines one of the strongest fields we’ve seen tee it up at PGA National in quite some time. 

This has been a regular stop on the PGA Tour for many years, which means there is a ton of good data to draw from on the course. However, the 10th hole has undergone a conversion.

The previous long par 4 has been extended by about 25 yards to make it a reachable par 5, playing at roughly 530 yards. This won’t make much of a difference in terms of the actual strokes, but it will play easier to par. 

We typically see the winning score in the 8-under-par to the 11-under range, so the winner could be as far under as minus-15 this week. 

PGA National will play as a Par 71 that measures 7,147 yards. 

Like most Florida courses, there are water hazards everywhere. It is in play on 15 of the 18 holes, which is why you see so many penalty strokes at this event each year.

The course also features the famous “Bear Trap” – one of the most difficult three-hole stretches on the PGA Tour. 

While longer hitters have had success here over the years, driving distance is not a prerequisite for success. The average drive was only 280.4 yards at this event last year, which was one of the lowest marks on the PGA Tour. 

With water lurking everywhere, and with narrow fairways and a number of dog legs, golfers will opt to club down on many of the holes. 

The greens are average in size (7,000 square feet) and feature bermudagrass. They typically play around 12 on the stimpmeter, which is pretty fast by PGA Tour standards.

Golfers were only able to hit the greens in regulation 64% of the time last year, which leads to a lot of scrambling opportunities.

A tidy short game is certainly appealing, as these aren’t the most simple up-and-downs you’ll see on the tour. 

In terms of the type of golfer I am looking to bet on this week, I prefer good approach play, good around-the-green play, bogey avoidance, experience in Florida, success on difficult courses and a decent finish at this event in the past. 

Here’s who made my outright betting card this week:

This is the event that really kick-started Cole’s PGA Tour career. 

He nearly won it at 150/1 odds last year, but ultimately lost in a playoff to Chris Kirk.

He parlayed that finish into a ton of top-10 and top-20 performances to win the tour’s Rookie of the Year Award. 

He’s been inching closer and closer to picking up that first win. 

I like to bet him on courses where driving distance isn’t a huge advantage. He’s elite on approach, he’s well above average around the green and he’s one of the best putters on tour. 

In his last 12 starts, he has four top-four finishes. If he keeps putting himself in contention, it’s only a matter of time before the breaks go his way. 

He should have great vibes heading back to PGA National this week. 

Benny An nearly won earlier this year at the Sony Open. He was in a playoff with two other golfers and had 4 feet left for his birdie.

He essentially had one hand on the trophy before Grayson Murray drained a 40-footer. At that point, the momentum had completely shifted and An missed his four-footer to force another playoff hole. 

He now has top-five finishes in four of his last 10 starts worldwide. 

Much like Cole, if he continues to give himself chances on Sundays he’s going to break through and win one of these events. 

He has excellent splits on bermuda courses and has finished T-5 or better two times at this event in his career. 

This is a bit of a long shot. 

Bezuidenhout is not a great driver, but he has always had an elite short game. 

More recently, we’ve seen him flash upside with his approach play; in his last four starts, he has gained more than 12 strokes on approach. 

He has excellent numbers on bermuda courses throughout his career and has a nice track record on difficult courses as well. 

He has never won on the PGA Tour, but he’s won three times on the DP World Tour. He’s played this event twice and has finished T-42 and T-25.