We’re approaching the halfway point of the MLB season, with the All-Star break taking place in two weeks.
By now, the playoff picture is usually halfway filled in.
You know who the true World Series contenders are, who is selling at the deadline, and who is tanking hard.
This season is a bit different.
Only two teams are essential locks for a playoff spot, the Braves and Rays, while every other postseason berth is wide open.
And there are a lot of teams competing.
For example, the Reds, Diamondbacks, and Rangers are all surprise teams leading their respective divisions.
The questions I’m here to answer today are: Are these surprise teams for real or fraudulent? Are they contenders or pretenders?
And from a gambling-specific standpoint: Are these teams worth betting on (futures and game-to-game), or are they overvalued because of recent hot streaks?
| 2023 World Series |
|---|
| Atlanta Braves +375 |
| Tampa Bay Rays +450 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers +550 |
| Houston Astros +700 |
| Texas Rangers +1200 |
| New York Yankees +1600 |
| Toronto Blue Jays +1800 |
| San Diego Padres +2100 |
| Minnesota Twins +2800 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks +3000 |
| Baltimore Orioles +3000 |
| Los Angeles Angels +3000 |
| Philadelphia Phillies +3000 |
| Sam Francisco Giants +3200 |
| New York Mets +4000 |
| Milwaukee Brewers +4000 |
| Cleveland Guardians +5000 |
| St. Louis Cardinals +5000 |
| Seattle Mariners +5500 |
| Boston Red Sox +7500 |
| Miami Marlins +8000 |
| Cincinnati Reds +8500 |
(+8500, BetRivers)
You could’ve grabbed the Reds to win the NL Central at 40-to-1 at the beginning of June, but that price is now long gone following a 12-game win streak to prop them atop the division. They opened the year at around 250-to-1 to win the World Series but are now 66-to-1.
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So, have we reached the peak of the market on the Reds? Or is there still room to go higher?
The great thing about the Reds is they’ve bought into their youth movement. They’ve called up their top prospects (Elly De La Cruz being the biggest), and the kids are playing well. The return of Joey Votto cannot be overstated, either, given his maturity, plate discipline, and power.
Unfortunately, I’m worried about the pitching. If they want to continue this hot streak, they need Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo to get healthy, alongside better performances from Graham Ashcraft.
Pretender or contender? The Reds are contenders, pending health. If they get good news on the injury front from top-line pitchers, they’ll be worth betting on until the postseason, even though FanGraphs projects them with less than a 20 percent chance to make the postseason.
(+3200, FanDuel)
The Diamondbacks are a contender, no questions asked.
When the league imposed the shift ban and bigger bases rules, it was clear that elite defense and speed would make a big difference in the new-look MLB. The Snakes have leaned into that more than any other team, and it’s paid off.
The emergence of MVP-caliber Corbin Carroll has made a difference, and there’s still enough pitching to earn an NL West title (Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly).
Pretender or contender? Arizona is +325 to win the NL West at BetMGM. While I can’t encourage a wager on that number or market, it clearly shows that the betting markets have yet to give the Diamondbacks the credit they deserve. I’d target them going forward.
(+1200, Caesars)
The Rangers are a contender, but they’re a tad overvalued.
Texas has an MLB-leading .362 BABIP with runners in scoring position. That’s a wild, unsustainable number.
And the pitching has to catch up to Texas. Dane Dunning and Jon Gray are two of the biggest regression candidates in MLB. Meanwhile, Jacob deGrom is out for the season, and Nathan Eovaldi is losing velocity on his fastball.
Pretender or contender? Contenders because of their lineup, but vastly overvalued in the betting markets.