The big names typically win the US Open.
If you look back at the last 10 winners of this tournament, there is really only one name that really sticks out — Martin Kaymer — and he was not really a huge surprise in the context of his win in 2014.
The German was trending up heading into his victory at Pinehurst and was “only” +4000 when he teed off on Thursday.
Outside of Kaymer, the only other player you could say was a surprise winner was Gary Woodland, but he, too, was gathering momentum before his win at Pebble Beach.
Last 10 US Open Winners:
But just because the last 10 years haven’t been kind to true long shots doesn’t mean it’s not worth throwing a couple of darts down the board.
Lucas Glover was a triple-digit winner back in 2009 and there have been a few close calls, including last year when Adam Hadwin was in contention on Sunday and in 2021 when 1000/1 long shot Guido Migliozzi cracked the top-5.
And one thing that these long shots have going for them is that we’re dealing with a new course.
Los Angeles Country Club hasn’t hosted a PGA Tour event since 1940, so there’s no course history to use to find clues as to which profile of golfer will excel here.
Perhaps there’s something about this track that levels the playing field a bit and mutes the advantages that the super-elites have over the field.
Or maybe not. There’s only one way to find out.
Whether you want to play them as an outright winner, back them to finish inside the top-20 or use them in DFS lineups, these are a few triple-digit long shots to have circled at LACC:
We’re not sure how Los Angeles Country Club will play, but we can make some safe assumptions.
It will be a tough tee-to-green test and mistakes will be punished.
One way to protect against those mistakes is being a wizard on the greens.
Denny McCarthy fits that bill.
But it’s not just McCarthy’s magic with the flatstick that makes him worth a punt at this number, it’s his form, too.
The 30-year-old lost to Viktor Hovland in a playoff at the Memorial in his last outing and has six top-20 finishes in his last 11 stroke-play events on the PGA Tour.
McCarthy could end up as a trendy pick in this range, but that shouldn’t stop you from getting involved.
The PGA Championship at Oak Hill proved to be a brutal test of golf and Kurt Kitayama passed it with flying colors.
But that wasn’t the first time Kitayama turned heads this year.
Although he never threatened the very top of the leaderboard at Oak Hill, Kitayama was one of a few golfers who kept it together all four rounds and he used a terrific showing on Sunday to vault himself into the top-5.
Like anybody at this number, Kitayama is boom or bust.
He’s missed the cut in five of his last 10 tournaments, but he’s got a win against a top-notch field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T4 at the PGA Championship in that span, too.
He’s the World No. 20 and is 250/1. Not much more that needs to be said.
Like Kitayama, the thing that piqued my interest on Sepp Straka is that he put together a strong performance at the PGA Championship.
Straka finished T7 at Oak Hill and shot two rounds in the 60’s, which was no small feat that weekend.
Including the PGA Championship, Straka has made three cuts in a row and is coming off a T16 at the Memorial, which was another tournament that required players to grind through a rough weekend.