The Post’s Dave Blezow breaks down all of the NFL season-long futures betting props ahead of the NFL season opener.
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
BLEZOW’S BREAKDOWN: If you’ve been reading this space over the years, you already know MVP has become exclusively a quarterbacks’ penthouse, with Patrick Mahomes in 2022 making it 10 years in a row and 15 of the past 16.
At the top of the odds board, if you take Mahomes, you have to worry about Joe Burrow.
If you back Burrow, you have to hope it’s not Josh Allen’s turn.
Right behind them is Jalen Hurts, who nearly became the second player from a losing team to win Super Bowl MVP.
The choice here — and I’m probably going to regret writing this immediately after watching “Hard Knocks” episode 4 — is Aaron Rodgers.
One could argue Rodgers is surrounded by as many offensive weapons as the top four, and the Jets arguably have the best defense.
But if Rodgers takes the Jets to the playoffs and into 12- or 13-win land, he’ll get all the credit and his fifth MVP award.
All odds via BetMGM as of Aug. 31.
Aaron Rodgers (16/1)
FINE FAVORITE
Joe Burrow (+600)
MID-RANGE THREAT
Trevor Lawrence (16/1)
THE ODDS:
| Patrick Mahomes +600 |
| Joe Burrow +700 |
| Josh Allen +750 |
| Justin Herbert +1100 |
| Jalen Hurts +1100 |
| Lamar Jackson +1400 |
| Aaron Rodgers +1600 |
| Tua Tagovailoa +1600 |
| Trevor Lawrence +1600 |
| Dak Prescott +1600 |
| Justin Fields +2000 |
| Jared Goff +2500 |
| Deshaun Watson 30/1 |
| Geno Smith 30/1 |
| Brock Purdy 40/1 |
| Russell Wilson 40/1 |
| Derek Carr 40/1 |
| Jordan Love 50/1 |
| Kenny Pickett 50/1 |
| Matthew Stafford 50/1 |
| Kirk Cousins 50/1 |
| Mac Jones 60/1 |
| Daniel Jones 80/1 |
| Christian McCaffrey 80/1 |
| Kyler Murray 100/1 |
| Justin Jefferson 100/1 |
| Sam Howell 100/1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo 100/1 |
| Ryan Tannehill 125/1 |
| Tyreek Hill 125/1 |
| Baker Mayfield 125/1 |
| Derrick Henry 150/1 |
| Micah Parsons 150/1 |
| Cooper Kupp 150/1 |
| Deebo Samuel 150/1 |
| Ja”Marr Chase 150/1 |
| Desmond Ridder 150/1 |
| Bailey Zappe 150/1 |
| Saquon Barkley 150/1 |
| Bryce Young 150/1 |
| Travis Kelce 150/1 |
| Myles Garrett 200/1 |
| Stefon Diggs 200/1 |
| CJ Stroud 200/1 |
| Davante Adams 200/1 |
| Nick Bosa 200/1 |
| CeeDee Lamb 200/1 |
| Zach Wilson 250/1 |
| Aaron Donald 250/1 |
BLEZOW’S BREAKDOWN: Patrick Mahomes was the leader in this category by more than 500 yards last season, but I find the +250 odds to be prohibitive. Possibly the most interesting stat from 2022 was that Justin Herbert finished second in the NFL with 4,739 passing yards on a Chargers team with a top receiver, Mike Williams, who ranked 27th with 895 yards. If Herbert can see one of his three top wideouts break out and can get another 700-plus receiving yards from RB Austin Ekeler, he can close the gap. Joe Burrow had two 1,000-yard plus receivers, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and should give this a good run. Lower down the board, don’t count out Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa and Aaron Rodgers.
PASSING YARDS WINNER
Justin Herbert +400
FAVORITE AT A BARGAIN
Joe Burrow +700
LIVE LONG SHOT
Tua Tagovailoa 18/1
| Patrick Mahomes +250 |
| Justin Herbert +400 |
| Joe Burrow +700 |
| Josh Allen 12/1 |
| Kirk Cousins 14/1 |
| Jared Goff 14/1 |
| Trevor Lawrence 14/1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa 18/1 |
| Dak Prescott 20/1 |
| Geno Smith 25/1 |
| Derek Carr 25/1 |
| Aaron Rodgers 25/1 |
| Deshaun Watson 30/1 |
| Lamar Jackson 30/1 |
| Matthew Stafford 30/1 |
| Jalen Hurts 40/1 |
| Russell Wilson 40/1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo 50/1 |
| Jordan Love 50/1 |
| Mac Jones 50/1 |
BLEZOW’S BREAKDOWN: Starting at the top, there’s nothing to dislike about the favorite, Nick Chubb, except for the +400 odds being a bit low. Last year, I reasoned that seasons of hard miles would take a toll on Derrick Henry, but he still came in second with 1,500-plus yards. No. 1 (Josh Jacobs) and No. 4 (Saquon Barkley) both returned to their teams after failing to secure long-term deals.
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They will be free agents again next season and will be motivated. The most intriguing choice is rookie Bijan Robinson, whose film out of Texas is otherworldly. He’s third in the odds on reputation, and with the Falcons possessing a few decent options in the passing game, hopefully Robinson won’t be facing eight-man boxes all season.
RUSHING YARDS LEADER
Josh Jacobs 20/1
ROOKIE MONSTER
Bijan Robinson +800
LIVE LONG SHOT
Kenneth Walker III 25/1
| Nick Chubb +400 |
| Derrick Henry +550 |
| Bijan Robinson +800 |
| Jonathan Taylor +900 |
| Saquon Barkley 16/1 |
| Tony Pollard 16/1 |
| Josh Jacobs 20/1 |
| Najee Harris 22/1 |
| Kenneth Walker III 25/1 |
| Christian McCaffrey 30/1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson 30/1 |
| Justin Fields 30/1 |
| Cam Akers 30/1 |
| J.K. Dobbins 30/1 |
| Breece Hall 35/1 |
| Travis Etienne 35/1 |
| Joe Mixon 40/1 |
| Miles Sanders 40/1 |
| Dameon Pierce 40/1 |
| Aaron Jones 40/1 |
BLEZOW’S BREAKDOWN: Justin Jefferson’s 1,809 yards were the fourth-highest leading total for a receiving leader in the last 27 years, impressive even with the addition of the 17th game. The Vikings have subtracted Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards, and rookie Jordan Addison could take a little more attention off Jefferson than Adam Thielen did. Tyreek Hill was only 99 yards behind, remarkable because his Miami teammate Jaylen Waddle had the seventh-most receiving yards. If Tua Tagovailoa favors Hill a little more this season, he can take it. Ja’Marr Chase’s 12-game pace doesn’t get him to 1,500. A.J. Brown must be considered, but the Eagles have lots of options and a running quarterback. Aaron Rodgers sure likes throwing to Garrett Wilson.
RECEIVING YARDS LEADER
Justin Jefferson +550
FINE FAVORITE
Tyreek Hill +700
LIVE LONG SHOT
Garrett Wilson 18/1
| Justin Jefferson +550 |
| Ja’Marr Chase +700 |
| Tyreek Hill +700 |
| Cooper Kupp 10/1 |
| A.J. Brown 12/1 |
| Davante Adams 12/1 |
| Garrett Wilson 18/1 |
| Stefon Diggs 18/1 |
| Jaylen Waddle 18/1 |
| Travis Kelce 20/1 |
| CeeDee Lamb 20/1 |
| Tee Higgins 30/1 |
| Chris Olave 30/1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown 30/1 |
| Calvin Ridley 30/1 |
| DeVonta Smith 401 |
| Terry McLaurin 40/1 |
| Amari Cooper 40/1 |
| Mike Williams 40/1 |
| DK Metcalf |
In 2022, these extra props went 2-2. We hit on the Eagles to win the NFC East and the AFC to win the Super Bowl. The losers were Derek Carr Over 4,499.5 passing yards and Kyle Pitts Over 69.5 receptions. The four-year record is 10-6 heading into these four predictions:
Jets to win AFC East (+250): This is a sister bet to Aaron Rodgers for MVP. If you believe in one, why not the other? The Jets have better talent than the Patriots, and the Bills may be getting a little stale. The Dolphins could be the bigger problem.
Kyle Pitts Under 700.5 receiving yards (-110): Pitts was more hurt than bad last season. but I think the Falcons offense has pivoted away from him as the focus. They should have a top running back in Bijan Robinson and have a quarterback who will look to run, too.
Garrett Wilson Over 8.5 receiving touchdowns (+120): Happy to grab plus money on this prop as Wilson will be Rodgers’ go-to guy inside the 20.
Texans Over 5.5 wins (-160): Paying some extra juice to take it down by a win as I think 6-11 is reachable for a team that is in a fairly weak division and has a good defense, offensive line, running game and a rookie coach in DeMeco Ryans who should breathe life into the franchise.