It’s not often where you see a sportsbook laying betting odds for an NFL quarterback to not only be the favorite for Most Valuable Player, but also to lead the league in interceptions thrown.
Well, we’re opting for the latter in this scenario and betting on Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen to fall short of the MVP award but be at the mountaintop for turnovers.
His odds to lead the NFL for interceptions thrown is 12/1 (7.7 percent implied probability), which is third behind Green Bay Packers Jordan Love and Houston Texans rookie, CJ Stroud, who are the co-favorites at 10/1.
The rap on Josh Allen entering the NFL in 2018 was he was a tremendous athlete with a rocket arm but his throwing accuracy left a lot to be desired.
Not sure if much has changed in his five years as the starting signal-caller in Buffalo.
He has thrown 60 INT in 77 career games (78 percent) and double-digit interceptions in four of his five seasons.
Despite the Bills ranking in the top-three in points scored per game in each of the last two seasons, Allen’s completion percentage has dropped each year while having thrown 29 INT in 32 games.
| Most interceptions odds |
|---|
| Jordan Love +1000 |
| CJ Stroud +1000 |
| Josh Allen +1200 |
| Dak Prescott +1200 |
| Joe Burrow +1200 |
| Kirk Cousins +1200 |
| Mac Jones +1200 |
| Matthew Stafford +1200 |
| Bryce Young +1200 |
| Anthony Richardson +1200 |
| Justin Fields +1400 |
The Wyoming product fell short of having the interception lead at the conclusion of 2022 with 14 interceptions in 16 games played.
The encouraging news is 10 of those interceptions came in only five games while nine of the 14 were in games vs. NFC opponents.
And 16 of his interceptions just over the past two years were when the Bills were facing an opponent in the opposite conference.
Part of the strategy when betting this market is you need to try and wager on a QB who you know will be playing at least 16 games.
Most below-average quarterbacks don’t have a long leash to have multiple interceptions in a game and still get the start the following week.
That’s why you need to eliminate nearly half the starters in the NFL because an organization will change it up quickly if their QB isn’t giving them a chance to win.
Injuries are also a part of this equation.
A QB who could easily lead this category if he plays all 17 games is Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford, but he has missed chunks of two of the past four seasons due to massive hits.
This factor is harder to quantify because any player in the NFL could get hurt on any play but it still has to be taken into consideration before locking in your bet.
The final factor to review about the Bills is their upcoming schedule.
They’ll be playing all the AFC divisional winners in the Chiefs, Bengals and Jaguars along with six games against an improving AFC East.
The Patriots broke the record for defensive touchdowns in a season last year, the Jets have a rising defense led by DT Quinnen Williams and reigning NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Sauce Gardner while the Dolphins added former All-Pro Jalen Ramsey to the fold.
The 2023 season will not be a cakewalk for the Bills’ offense.
Barring injury, Allen will be in the mix right down to the final game.