The Cardinals are entering full tanking mode. 

They’ve recently released veteran backup quarterback Colt McCoy. So, with Kyler Murray on the PUP list, one of Josh Dobbs or Clayton Tune will be the Week 1 starter. 

Over in Vegas, the Cardinals have the longest odds to win the Super Bowl at most sportsbooks, and their win total has dropped to 4.5 across the market (juiced to the under). 

This is already a lost season for the Cardinals. 

But how bad are the Cardinals going to be? Can we really bet them to win four or fewer games? 

Or are the Cardinals being slightly undervalued due to the chaos around the organization? 

First, let’s get the bad out of the way. 

This is the worst top-to-bottom roster in the league. They have a first-year head coach, Jonathan Gannon, a first-year offensive coordinator, Drew Petzing, and a first-year defensive coordinator, Nick Rallis. 

Murray is out for an undisclosed amount of time as he rehabs from his ACL and meniscus tears. 

However, it’s hard to lose 13 or 14 games on a 17-game schedule, and it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals will be worse than last season. 

Kliff Kingsbury was a disaster as an NFL head coach. His game plans were easy to scheme against, and he refused to make week-to-week or in-game adjustments. 

Gannon schemed together an incredible defense in Philadelphia – the Eagles finished last year with a league-high 70 sacks – and he will provide a moderate coaching upgrade, even if only because Kingsbury was so lousy. 

Meanwhile, I’d expect more under-center formations and play-action calls from Petzig, more basic stuff. However, that will be an upgrade over Kingsbury’s backyard football scheme. 

The Cardinals should be healthier, too. The offense lost the third-most adjusted games due to injury, with the offensive line using 13 different starters. 

And the Cardinals should see some better close-game luck.

They went 2-6 in one-score games last season, meaning they probably were a tad better than a four-win squad – their Pythageron expected win-loss record was 5.8-11.2. 

We could see that close-game luck flip with a more manageable schedule.

Per Sean Koerner of The Action Network, the Cardinals have the 11th-easiest strength of schedule in the NFL.

Arizona will need a few roster pieces to hit. 

First-round pick Paris Johnson should upgrade the line play.

Three starters return around him (D.J. Humphries, Will Hernandez, Kevin Beachum), so this cabinet is far from empty. 

I expect the Cardinals to lean on the ground game behind James Conner, which could work out OK. 

On defense, maybe former linebackers Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins will play better now that they’ve been moved to positions that fit their strengths (Simmons will play a nickel corner role, while Collins will be moved to edge).

Both were former first-round picks, so there’s talent. 

With those two moving away from that unit, former Philadelphia linebacker Kyzir White must provide production in Arizona. 

Second-round pick B.J. Ojulari should immediately produce as an edge rusher, which is much needed on this team after the losses of J.J. Watt (retirement), Zach Allen (free agency) and Markus Golden (released). 

Buddha Baker will still captain the secondary following a reworked contract extension.

He’s still a top-20 player at the position (19th in Pro Football Focus’s grades last year). 

However, the key for the Cardinals this year is the return of Murray. 

If Murray returns early enough, between Weeks 6 and 10, the Cardinals will have a chance to scrape together five wins. He’ll need to be mobile post-injury. 

Murray will have decent skill-position weapons to throw to, including Marquise Brown and Zach Ertz. 

It’s very tough to lose 14 games in the NFL, and I think the Cardinals will see moderate success behind a new coaching staff and some improved luck. 

While the Cardinals will struggle in the early season, the coaching staff and roster should improve as the season progresses, especially when Murray returns under center. 

The most likely outcome for this team is 5-11 or 6-12. Aaron Schatz’s DVOA projections peg them for 5.8 wins in the upcoming season. 

We’re getting a solid plus-money price on Over 4.5 wins, so I’m showing some value on that wager. 

The play: Arizona Cardinals over 4.5 Wins (+130) at Caesars