The Jordan Love era has begun in Green Bay and the betting world is split on the future.
So much of the Packers’ future relies on the development of Love. I’m not here to comment on what the long-term future might look like.
But, I am here to comment on the immediate future, which is murky.
From a gambling perspective, I see value in fading the 2023 Packers.
The Packers likely won’t finish at the bottom of the barrel in the NFC.
There are things to like about this squad.
The offensive line should be good and the defense features a young core that likely improves in the coming seasons.
However, Love is a huge question mark at quarterback. While he’ll be well-protected, I’m unsure if he’ll have the skill-position weapons to perform immediately in his first year as an NFL starter.
This is one of the league’s most inexperienced pass-catching corps and they flashed that inexperience last season.
Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson combined for nine drops last season. The running back corps of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon added another seven drops (even when they were catching passes out of the backfield).
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While Matt LaFleur can rely heavily on Jones and Dillon in the run game, winning games in the NFL without a competent passing attack is tough. I think the Packers are a year away from becoming competent in that area, as the receiving room likely hinders Love’s development.
Outside of roster construction, I’m fading the Packers in the upcoming season for two main reasons.
First, the Packers had the sixth-best injury luck in the NFL last year, per Sean Koerner of The Action Network. If that luck were to flip in 2023, their depth would be tested like never before – I’m not sure if the Packers could survive a key injury in the secondary.
Second, as an NFC team, the Packers have nine road games in 2023. Three of their first five games come on the road, giving Love no time to ease into his new role as starting quarterback for one of the most successful franchises in NFL history.
Ultimately, I project the Packers closer to seven wins in the upcoming season. I could envision the Love era starting as the Rodgers era did, with a six-win season.
A Packers Under 7.5 Wins (+120) is available at Caesars, and the plus-money price provides us with great value.
The play: Packers Under 7.5 Wins (+120) at Caesars