Defensive Player of the Year may not be the sexiest award for NFL futures, and the 2023 season offers one of the more predictable markets in recent memory.

Eight of the last 10 winners for DPOY finished with at least double-digit sacks.

One of those players was the Steelers’ T.J. Watt, who’s a certified edge-rusher and is +800 (11 percent implied probability) to win the award for a second time.

He’s third on the list, just behind the Cowboys’ Micah Parsons (+600) and Browns’ Myles Garrett (+700), on the oddsboard at FanDuel.

The 2022 season was one to forget for Watt after he managed to play just 10 games after he tore a pectoral muscle in Week 1.

The injury limited him to only 5.5 sacks (career low) and 39 tackles.

Had he not gotten hurt, bettors would likely have seen the explosiveness we’re accustomed to seeing when Watt led the NFL in total sacks from 2019 to 2021 (50 sacks in 46 games).

Another reason why bettors should be heavily considering Watt for NFL DPOY is the voting pedigree.

Until the 2022 season, Watt had finished in the top three in DPOY voting for four consecutive years, finally winning in 2021.

He’s in his prime and is absolutely unblockable at times.

His impact on the Steelers’ defense was quite obvious once you dive into the 2022 stats.

In the 10 games he played, Pittsburgh was 8-2 and held opponents to an average of 14.3 points per game.

In fact, only one team crossed the 20-point threshold in those contests (the Bengals in Week 11).

In the seven games Watt missed, it was nearly the opposite.

Pittsburgh was 1-6 while giving up 25.2 points per game.

It’s not rocket science to notice the Steelers’ defense was not up to snuff while Watt was on the sideline.

If Watt plays at least 15 games, the Steelers’ defense will be primed for a return to prominence.

Signing cornerback Patrick Peterson and drafting cornerback Joey Porter Jr. will shore up some of Pittsburgh’s secondary woes and allow the pass rush more time to get to the quarterback.

The last thing an opposing offense wants to do is give Watt more time. 

The elephant in the room is the Steelers’ passing offense, which was a train wreck last season.

Ranking last in total passing touchdowns and bottom five in pass yards per play isn’t going to help a defense to get a break and be rested.

Quarterback Kenny Pickett should improve with another training camp under his belt.

Based on his 2022 metrics, there’s nowhere to go but up.

If you’re planning to bet on Watt for Defensive Player Of The Year, make sure to grab it before Week 1.

The Steelers are hosting a worthy opponent in the 49ers to kick off the season, which is a great test for Watt out of the gate.

If he gets off to a hot start and manages to snag a couple of sacks against the 49ers, these betting odds will shrink immensely, especially with Browns, Raiders and Texans on tap for the opening month of the season.