The New York Yankees will play their first Spring Training game on Saturday afternoon against the Philadelphia Phillies. There’s still over a month until the actual Opening Day at the end of March, and things can change during the exhibition season, but we have a pretty good idea of where the Bronx Bombers stand going into 2023.
Let’s take a look at what the betting market expects out of the Pinstripes this baseball season:
All odds via Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Feb. 23.
As you can see by the Yankees’ season-long odds, they are expected to be one of the best teams in baseball once again this summer. Being the second-favorite to win the World Series is an excellent place to be in Spring Training, but there’s still a sense of frustration in the Bronx because the Yanks didn’t close the gap with the Houston Astros.
Despite losing Justin Verlander, Houston is still the consensus favorite to win the World Series at +550.
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Putting that aside, it’s hard to argue that the Yankees don’t deserve their spot near the top of the betting board. The Bombers have a deep offense led by reigning MVP Aaron Judge, and the addition of Carlos Rodon and a healthy Luis Severino should bolster the starting rotation.
The problem with betting on a team with odds this short is that you have very little room for error. The odds imply that the Yankees win the American League East roughly 46.5% of the time, which is a pretty lofty number considering their competition.
In short, the best way to attack the Yankees if you’re looking for a futures play is to be patient. The Bombers were on pace to set all sorts of records during the first half last season, but they still went into the postseason with longer odds than the Astros. Perhaps this number gets shorter, but the most likely outcome is it hangs around this range for most of the season.
By sitting back and waiting, you give yourself time to buy low or perhaps beat the market if rumors of a big move (perhaps to upgrade left field or third base) start to heat up.
Aaron Judge is obviously the story here. The Yankee captain is the second-favorite to repeat as AL MVP at +400 (Shohei Ohtani is the favorite at +200) and is the consensus chalk to lead the Major Leagues in home runs at +600.
It may feel like a pretty safe bet to back Judge to lead the circuit in dingers after what we saw out of him in 2022, but that’s a rather short price to support someone in a race that is heavily dictated by who stays healthy.
Speaking of staying healthy, if Giancarlo Stanton can find a way to avoid long stints on the injured list, he could be worth a shot at +3000 to hit the most home runs.
Judge isn’t the only Yankee among the favorites to win some hardware. Gerrit Cole is the +600 favorite to win the Cy Young, and his new teammate, Carlos Rodon, is not far behind at +900.
Luis Severino seems to be a popular long shot bet to win the Cy Young as his odds have slashed from +7000 to +4500 in the last week.