I’m all in on the Nuggets in the NBA Finals.
I don’t expect the Heat to be remotely competitive in this series.
I expect this to start in Heat vs. Nuggets Game 1.
Per Raheem Palmer of The Ringer, teams that win a Game 7 are 36-50 (41.5 percent) in the following series since 1988.
Five of the past six winners of a Game 7 have lost the next series.
The odds are already stacked against the Heat, given that seven-game playoff series are so punishing. But the situation Miami finds itself in is worse than usual.
The Eastern Conference finals looked grueling, physical, and exhausting.
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The final four games went under, stars were injured and everyone was tired (including the fans).
Now, the Heat have to turn around and play consecutive games at Denver’s mile high altitude against a well-rested offensive juggernaut.
The Nuggets, who last played on May 22, are undefeated at home during this playoff run, partially because it’s hard to defend their style of basketball at elevation.
It’s also a poor on-court matchup for Miami.
The Heat are short on big men, and Bam Adebayo has always struggled against Nikola Jokic (to be fair, most players have).
The best way to stop Jokic is to throw multiple bodies at him, but the Heat only have one, largely ineffective Jokic “stopper.”
The Heat were good at one thing defensively during the regular season: ball pressure.
Miami finished sixth in the NBA in steals per game (8.0), and took advantage of that strength in the East finals against Boston’s very shaky ball handling.
That monster advantage is gone, as the Nuggets lead all 2023 playoff teams in turnovers per game (11.4) and assist-to-turnover ratio (2.27).
Denver should easily circumvent Miami’s ball pressure and crafty zone defense with Jokic-centered ball movement.
There’s a reason Denver is 9-1 straight up and against the spread in its past 10 meetings with Miami: The Heat don’t match up well with the Nuggets.
Also, Nuggets coach Mike Malone is not Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla.
The Heat and Erik Spoelstra used a monster coaching advantage to overcome a huge talent disparity in the East finals, but that coaching advantage has been severely slashed.
The Heat were also a little lucky to beat Boston.
Per Brandon Anderson of The Action Network, the Heat shot more than 45 percent from 3-point range in just eight games during the regular season, then did so in all four wins over the Celtics.
We should expect some shooting regression from Miami, although I’ve said that before.
Are we really giving enough respect to Denver?
The Heat hold the second-best net rating during these playoffs at +4.6, but the Nuggets are first at +8.0.
Behind Jokic’s 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game, the Nuggets have obliterated every opponent in their path — they’ve won six straight games.
This Heat playoff run was special, but they’re about to face off with the best team they’ve played against in the worst possible situation, and I don’t see the Spoelstra-Butler duo overcoming that.
For me, the NBA playoffs essentially ended with Miami’s Memorial Day victory.
I’m betting the Nuggets will win the series in five and will happily take an alternate series spread provided by BetMGM of Nuggets -2.5 games (+120).
Nuggets -2.5 games (+120, BetMGM)