The Kentucky Derby is the main event this weekend, but the real railbirds in your life will tell you that the party really gets started with the Kentucky Oaks on Friday.
The Kentucky Oaks, which features a field of 14 of the best 3-year-old fillies in the racing world, will take place at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. with a post time of 5:51 p.m. ET on Friday, May 5.
No. 7 Wet Paint (5-2) is the morning-line favorite and will be the one to beat in this field after three consecutive victories at Oaklawn.
The Brad Cox-trained filly has shown well in wet conditions (the forecast is calling for showers on Friday) and has been a model of consistency since losing the first race of her career, which came on turf.
Cox has won the Oaks twice (2018 with Monomoy Girl and 2020 with Shedaresthedevil) and Wet Paint has every chance for him to complete the hat-trick.
But just because Wet Paint is going to be a heavy favorite doesn’t mean she can’t be beat.
She was highly impressive in her last win going from last to first, but it was the second time in a row that she broke slowly from the gates.
Wet Paint was able to make up the ground at Oaklawn, but this will be a much tougher field than what she saw back on April 1.
Here’s how you can take on Wet Paint at the 2023 Kentucky Oaks:
A horse in terrific form, Pretty Mischievous won four of her last six starts and ended up in the winner’s circle twice in her first two outings at Churchill Downs.
Pretty Mischievous caught a tough break drawing into one of the outside post positions, but you can trust that Tyler Gaffalione will have every chance to get her in position for a good trip in this race.
And while coming out of the No. 14 position isn’t ideal, what it will do is keep this contender at a fair price and offer bettors an opportunity to get a horse with serious win equity at a good price.
It’s never a bad idea to play one of Brad Cox’s horses when they’re at this price, so don’t ignore Alys Look in this spot.
Cox’s other two entrants, Wet Paint and Botanical, will get the majority of the money and the attention, but both have questions.
Wet Paint’s had issues out of the gate, while Botanical has not raced on this surface yet.
Alys Look is coming off a disappointing showing in her last outing, but that gives bettors a chance to buy low.
Speaking of buying low, Wonder Wheel looked like she’d be the favorite for this race after winning four of five starts in 2022, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.
But a sluggish start to 2023 has seen her stock drop and now gives shrewd punters a chance to buy the dip.
Like Alys Look, Wonder Wheel is a good option to use with one of the favorites in your exotics.