


The 2023 Kentucky Derby has arrived, and by all accounts this 19-horse race should make for some incredible betting.
Already a race that thrives on chaos because of the field size, this year’s iteration of the “Run for the Roses” has potential to be even more volatile than usual thanks to the make-up of the race.
The consensus opinion of the field seems to be that it is generally weak and that the favorites, No. 15 Forte (3-1) and No. 5 Tapit Trice (5-1), are both beatable and need more things to go right for them to win the race than we usually see out of the favorites at the Kentucky Derby.
Let’s take a look at the field, and try to pick some targets for exotic bets.
No. 1 Hit Show | 30-1 |
No. 2 Verifying | 15-1 |
No. 3 Two Phil’s | 12-1 |
No. 4 Confidence Game | 20-1 |
No. 5 Tapit Trice | 5-1 |
No. 6 Kingsbarns | 12-1 |
No. 7 Reincarnate | 50-1 |
No. 8 Mage | 15-1 |
No. 9 Skinner (Scratched) | 20-1 |
No. 10 Practical Move (Scratched) | 10-1 |
No. 11 Disarm | 30-1 |
No. 12 Jace’s Road | 15-1 |
No. 13 Sun Thunder | 30-1 |
No. 14 Angel of Empire | 8-1 |
No. 15 Forte | 3-1 |
No. 16 Raise Cain | 15-1 |
No. 17 Derma Sotogake | 10-1 |
No. 18 Rocket Can | 15-1 |
No. 19 Lord Miles | 30-1 |
No. 20 Continuar | 50-1 |
No. 21 Cyclone of Mischief | 30-1 |
That doesn’t mean that Forte and Tapit Trice won’t dominate on Saturday and ruin any chance of big payouts on exotic wagers like exactas, trifectas and superfectas — that is certainly in the realm of possibilities — but it does mean that there are a handful of horses that have the potential to win this race.
In most years handicappers try to narrow it down to three or four horses they believe can win, but this year that list could double.
And that means, if you get it right, the upside could be massive.
Here are a couple of horses worth considering to add value to your vertical wagers like exactas and trifectas:
Let me start off by saying that you can make a case to use whatever favorite you want in this spot.
But there’s one particular reason I’ll go with Tapit Trice over Forte.
In all likelihood, Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale will bet millions of dollars on Forte to win the Kentucky Derby because of the annual promotion he runs at his furniture stores.
That will suppress the odds on Forte and should keep Tapit Trice at a decent price for a horse that could many consider to be the class of the field.
Another horse whose true odds are probably a little shorter than his morning-line price, it will be interesting to see just how much support Derma Sotogake gets in this race given that no Japanese horse has ever hit the board in the Kentucky Derby.
The UAE Derby winner should be forwardly-placed and has the
Quite simply, this is a buy-low spot on a talented horse that has plenty of believers, but is priced as a long shot because of his post position.
The last horse to win the Kentucky Derby from the No. 1 spot was Ferdinand back in 1986, so it’s unlikely Hit Show will get much support.
But if he breaks clean, he can grind his way to the podium in a field that lacks pace.
There’s a chance that Reincarnate is the pace-setter for this field, as most of the entrants — especially the favorites — prefer to sit back and pick up the pieces down the stretch.
While it’s not likely that this horse can go gate-to-wire, perhaps he puts enough distance between himself and the chasing pack that he’s there in the end and gets himself in the money.
At this price he’s absolutely worth including.
The $1 Superfecta is a lottery ticket.
It’s incredibly hard to win, but there are few, if any, bets in sports that boast better bang-for-your-buck compared to the $1 Superfecta in the Kentucky Derby.
Since 2005, there have been 13 payouts of at least $10,000 and four that hit six figures, including last year.
So pick a couple of long shots, toss them into a superfecta box and pray.
The horses I’m using here are: No. 5 Tapit Trice (5-1), No. 1 Hit Show (30-1), No. 7 Reincarnate (50-1), No. 17 Derma Sotogake (10-1).
A $1 superfecta box with those four horses would cost $24.