The USC Trojans football team will be good, folks.
Defending Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams is back, and his support staff could be better in 2023.
While top pass-catching option Jordan Addison is gone, Tahj Washington and Mario Williams return to the unit.
Plus, head coach Lincoln Riley dipped into the portal and snagged Arizona transfer WR Dorian Singer (1105 yards last year) while recruiting three highly-touted freshmen in Zacharian Branch (five-star WR), Makai Lemon (four-star WR) and Duce Robinson (five-star TE).
The offensive line did lose some starters, but it added three transfers and have 95 career FBS in total.
This unit projects as solid.
Riley’s offense will be as explosive this season as last when it finished third nationally in points per game (41.4).
Meanwhile, the defense should be better.
While many Trojan fans are loathing the return of defensive coordinator Alex Lynch, this unit is far better on paper.
Nearly 70 percent of experience returns, per Collin Wilson of The Action Network, including nine starters.
Riley brought in several potential high-impact transfers in DT Bear Alexander (Georgia), DE Anthony Lucas (Texas A&M), DT Kyon Barrs (Arizona), EDGE Jamil Muhammad (Georgia State), LB Mason Cobb (Oklahoma State) and CB Christian Rolland-Wallace (Arizona).
USC’s defense was horrendous last year, but I could see it being one of the most improved in the Pac-12 this year.
However, there are three reasons why I’ll be fading USC in the win total market and taking them to go Under 10 wins in the upcoming season.
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Firstly, the Trojans were a whopping +22 in net turnovers last season. That was tops in the nation, and there’s no way they replicate that.
Regression is coming in the turnover department, which could cost them some close games (USC won four by one score last year).
The Trojans also have a brutal schedule in the second half.
They have road games at Notre Dame, Oregon and California (which doesn’t seem like a tough spot, but it will be because Cal is off a bye).
Home games during the stretch include Utah, Washington and UCLA.
USC should start 6-0 (San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado, Arizona). But The Action Network’s Analytics Team projects the Trojans as underdogs in four of their final six games, so winning four of them will be challenging.
Lastly, our Analytics Team projects the Trojans for 8.8 wins based on all that information. That provides us with clear value on Under 10 Wins (-125).
While I think the Trojans are better from a roster perspective, I don’t think they can duplicate last year’s 11 wins with their projected turnover regression and second-half schedule.
The play: Under 10 Wins (-125) at Caesars