The week after a major championship is always tricky to handicap.
The fields are usually relatively thin on big names and there are questions about motivation — and fatigue — immediately after one of the toughest tournaments of the year.
So while casual fans may want a break from golf after the grind of the PGA Championship, seasoned bettors know that there’s an edge to be found in these tournaments immediately after a major.
The field this week is more top-heavy than it is deep. Scottie Scheffler is the clear favorite at +400, while Jordan Spieth (+1200), Viktor Hovland (+1400), Tony Finau (+1600), Collin Morikawa (+1600), and Sungjae Im (+1800) are all hanging around under +2000.
Other big names in the field include Max Homa (+2200), Tommy Fleetwood (+3000), and defending champion Sam Burns (+3300).
Colonial Country Club is a well-known course on the PGA Tour, so it shouldn’t pack too many surprises.
That said, the course can be challenging depending on the wind and how it’s set up.
We’ve seen winners here post 20-under par (Justin Rose, 2018), but Burns lifted the trophy with a 9-under performance last year.
In the past, we’ve seen some big prices (Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na) cash here, so let’s see if we can find some value down the board.
If you bet golf regularly, you probably already know this, but Stephen Jaeger is becoming a bit of a darling in the gambling community.
Jaeger only finished T50 at the PGA Championship last week, but just making the cut at that course against that field was quite an accomplishment for a player like Jaeger.
And if you look at the big picture, Jaeger has been trending up in a big way.
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The 33-year-old has three top-20 finishes in his last eight starts and has missed just two cuts in 13 starts in 2023.
Jaeger is also just two weeks removed from a T11 finish at TPC Craig Ranch, which is just about an hour away from Colonial.
It wasn’t a great showing for Christiaan Bezuidenhout at Oak Hill, but we can draw a line through the missed cut at the PGA Championship.
And if you look beyond the MC last week, you’ll notice that the South African is putting together some impressive results of late.
Bezuidenhout finished T13 at THE PLAYERS, T28 at the Valero Texas Open, T19 at the RBC Heritage, and T23 down the block at TPC Craig Ranch.
The 29-year-old posted a T15 here in 2022.
Let’s get a little crazy.
There’s very little in Dylan Frittelli’s form that says he’s worth a shot this weekend, but he’s a former winner on the PGA TOUR, went to the University of Texas, and played well at the 2022 iteration of this tournament.
Frittelli is more likely to miss the cut than make it, but the price is too hard to ignore on a player who has a decently high ceiling and has plenty of experience playing in these conditions.