According to oddsmakers, there is no clear favorite in the NHL next season. At least not yet.
Perhaps that sentiment changes after what should be a manic offseason, but for now the bookies are not comfortable putting one team in its own tier like it did with Colorado ahead of the last two regular seasons.
Instead, BetMGM has tagged the Avalanche (+800) just a slight favorite over the Bruins and Maple Leafs (both +950), with the Oilers right on their tails at 10/1.
They have plenty of company, too, as the Devils, Hurricanes, and Golden Knights are all currently 12/1 while there are four other teams (Rangers, Stars, Lightning, and Panthers) between 14/1 and 18/1.
So what are the bookmakers trying to tell us ahead of what will be the busiest two weeks of the NHL offseason?
Parity is back.
The first two seasons after the pandemic hiatus were chalky.
Favorites were clipping at a historic rate in the NHL, and we had two powerhouses (Tampa Bay and Colorado) lift the Stanley Cup.
But the 2022-23 playoffs were full of surprises, and it looks like we could be dealing with more of the same in 2023-24.
One reason we can expect things to get a bit more chaotic is that there are serious questions (not just: Can they stay healthy for 82 games?) to be asked of every team at the top of the board and there’s an emerging middle class of upstarts that will be doing the asking.
Colorado’s depth is a problem, the Leafs are in flux, while the Oilers, Hurricanes and Golden Knights have murky goaltending situations.
And unlike in the past few seasons, this time around there are a handful of rising powers that are ready to steal a spot at the party if things fall apart for one of the big boys.
One thing this odds board makes clear is that nobody knows what to expect in the summer.
This could be the weakest free agency class we’ve seen in a decade, but there are plenty of massive names on the trade market, with a handful of teams like the Jets, Flames, and Maple Leafs all rumored to be considering trading away game-breaking players.
All the while, almost every team with aspirations of contending next season is dealing with salary cap problems.
This all adds up to a very unpredictable offseason.
That is good news for bettors, who stand a much better chance at beating the market to big NHL moves than they do in sports like the NFL or NBA, where a lot more people are paying attention.
That means that if you think a team on the outside (say, Los Angeles, Detroit, or Seattle) is setting up for a big move, you’re going to want to beat the market by betting on them before the acquisition becomes official because once it does the number will likely crash a bit.
The offseason has yet to even begin, so this is a very early look at the betting landscape for 2023-24, but there are a couple of teams that will likely see their odds adjusted as we get closer to October.
The Sabres and Senators are likely to be trendy sleeper picks, while we could see a big long shot like the Blue Jackets taking some money if they continue to be aggressive this summer.
One prediction I’ll make now: The Oilers will be the betting favorite on opening night.