One of the most effective things that Donald Trump did to secure the nomination and the support of social conservatives in 2016 was to draw up a list of names and pledge to stick to it when selecting Supreme Court nominees.

Now, this was a direly important issue because Republicans in the Senate were holding open the seat that had been vacated when Justice Antonin Scalia died. The list was made in consultation with Leonard Leo, the head of the Federalist Society. This turned out to be a smashing political success for Trump, who became the most trusted candidate among Evangelical voters ever, but also for advocates of judicial conservatism, who saw a near-revolution of the federal judiciary under the Trump administration. While conservatives may regret this or that ruling — Gorsuch on Bostock, or Barrett on the recent border questions — now and perhaps for years to come, the Supreme Court is delivering real, substantive victories for conservatives every term. We’ve already seen this on affirmative action, gun rights, and the fall of Roe v. Wade.

Trump made a new list during his reelection campaign of 2020, much like he had the first time. Will he do so again?

While he brags about the overturning of Roe, he also cautions Republicans against putting meaningful restrictions on abortion. Trump may think that his deeds have secured the loyalty of every religious conservative that was available to him, and that a new pledge does nothing but remind moderate voters of how successful social conservatives were in his administration.

There’s also the possibility that he’s grown tired of Federalist Society types, many of whom advised or ruled against his attempts to alter, delay, or obscure the result of the 2020 election.

Given how a Trump–Biden election is generally unpopular and could lead to depressed turnout, I think Trump would be well-advised to be as specific as possible about the rewards his supporters will see for reelecting him.