(The paragraph of throat-clearing.) So, I genuinely agree with some of the people around the president that there is something unsustainable about America’s trading relationships. I believe financial power, military preeminence, and ultimately, political independence are consequences of overall industrial prowess. I agree with decoupling from China, because I do not believe there is such a thing as “free trade” or a “free market” that exists between free and non-free nations. So, in general, I would say I’m the most likely at NR to be enthusiastic about iconoclasm on the trade issue. You could say I’m open to new thinking.

(The windup.) And, the instant application of high tariff rates is an entirely novel approach to tariffs and trade policy. The White House claims to be hitting “China” with 104 percent tariffs as we speak.

(The point.) To which, I feel obliged to respond: Not when you do it instantly! When you do an instant tariff, you guarantee to do maximum damage to American importers, who placed their orders weeks, months, maybe years ago — only to find their cost certainty gone. In the case of those importing from China, they are faced with a 104 percent surcharge at the border.

The worst dilemma for that American importer is that they have no idea what the tariff rate will be a few hours from now. China may dump more treasuries to anger Trump, and Trump may raise rates again tomorrow. Or he might, as he’s done before, announce a pause. Do you delay and risk a 208 percent tariff? Do you delay and hope for one that is halved, or canceled altogether?

In any case, everyone getting hit with instant tariffs on goods they bought with what they thought had cost certainty will blame the White House. And no deal the White House can make in the future will make them whole or make them forget the shock bill they faced this week.

Tariffs, to be effective on their terms, have to be phased in to not hurt people conducting normal business, and to allow people to cancel orders, or ultimately When you do an instant tariff, you guarantee to do maximum damage to American importersshift production before they take effect. Typically, they need to be accompanied by compensating measures that make building in America (or Canada and Mexico) more attractive, or at least possible.