Satellite imagery of damage at a cosmodrome in Russia’s northwestern Arkhangelsk region suggests that Russia’s latest test of its RS-28 Sarmat Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) failed, according to open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts.

Analysing satellite images captured on Saturday, OSINT analyst @MeNMyRC suggested that a large crater at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome may have been caused by the missile exploding in its launch silo, an assessment that was subsequently backed up by other analysts.

Four firetrucks are also visible in the images, which were likely responding to a nearby forest fire triggered by the failed test launch, according to @MeNMyRC, who also cited data from NASA’s FIRMS service, which monitors active fires around the world, recording two areas with abnormally high temperatures in Plesetsk on Friday and Saturday.

The Sarmat, touted by Russia as a key component of its strategic nuclear deterrent, was first successfully tested in Plesetsk in April 2022, but has failed three times in subsequent test launches, with this incident potentially being the fourth.

Citing officials close to senior Russian diplomats, The Washington Post reported on Sunday that Vladimir Putin may be realising that Russian nuclear sabre rattling is troubling Western officials less and less.

“The nuclear option is ‘the least possible’ of scenarios”, a Russian academic with close ties to senior diplomats was cited by The Washington Post as saying.

“There is an understanding that the red lines drawn by Moscow are being ignored by the West, and there should be weightier and more significant steps from Moscow to demonstrate the seriousness of its intentions,” Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the France-based political think tank R-Politik, told The Washington Post.

Sarmat missiles, which are produced at the Krasnoyarsk Machine-Building Plant in Siberia, have a range of 18,000 kilometres, according to its designers. Their long range allows the missiles to carry a large payload and to “fly over the North and South Poles and strike targets anywhere in the world”, Putin said in 2018.