Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2025 was actually almost a percentage point higher than initially reported, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced Thursday, releasing its final estimate for the period.
BEA’s seasonally-adjusted estimate was first revised up from 3.0% to 3.3%, then from 3.3% to 3.8% in its final estimate, putting the final number 0.8 percentage point higher than initially reported.
The 3.8% second quarter growth represents a sharp rebound from the first quarter’s 0.6 percentage point final-estimate decline.
The 0.5 percentage point upward revision from the second estimate primarily reflects a higher final estimate of consumer spending that was partly offset by a downward revision to exports. Imports decreased less than in the previous estimate.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.9% in the second quarter, revised a full percentage point from the previous estimate.
The final estimate for growth of real final sales to domestic purchasers is more than double the BEA’s first estimate. The advance estimate of 1.2% growth was first revised up to 1.9% and then to the 2.9% final number.
The White House celebrated the news with a social media post of CNBC calling the revision “really solid” - and shocking, given that revisions are usually downward. CNBC also noted that the 3.8% increase is the largest quarterly gain since the third quarter of 2023’s 4.4% increase.
???? "I'm a bit shocked to be honest":
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) September 25, 2025
Second quarter GDP has been revised HIGHER once again to 3.8% — reflecting much stronger than expected consumer spending, rising incomes, and lower imports. pic.twitter.com/B6GUy2Qfhr