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Tim Graham


NextImg:Premature Fact-Checkulation: PolitiFact Pounces on Negative Net Migration Boast by Trump

PolitiFact is hyper-aggressive in “fact checking” Donald Trump, with eight “checks” over the last 30 days and four of them “Pants On Fire” denunciations. On Friday, they slapped a “Mostly False” on this presidential post on Truth Social:

“Promises kept: negative net migration (in the U.S.) for the first time in 50 years!”

Even their headline suggested they were pouncing too early: “Trump’s claims of negative net migration are premature. Some analysts say it could happen.”

So why "fact check" what "could happen"? They're so aggressive they pounced on the word "kept." Trump press aide Abigail Jackson said they were using Harry Enten: 

The statements followed an Aug. 3 segment by CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten, who said, "2025 net migration in the U.S. down at least 60% from last year. In fact, we may be heading for the first time in at least 50 years in which we have net negative migration into the United States."

Immigration "reporter" Maria Ramirez Uribe even admitted negative net migration looks likely: 

Of the five groups that published 2025 net migration estimates, all agree that U.S. net migration will decrease.

In July, the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, said net migration will likely fall between a loss of 525,000 people to a gain of 115,000 people. The report was co-authored by two economists from the nonpartisan Brookings Institution.

"Though small positive net flows are within our projected range and certainly possible, we believe zero or net negative migration for the year is more likely," the group’s report said.

Make sure to notice that PolitiFact calls AEI "conservative" and Brookings "nonpartisan." Cecilia Rouse, the current president of Brookings, has worked for three Democrat presidents -- most recently as the chair of Biden's Council of Economic Advisers. 

Stan Veuger, a senior fellow at the institute [AEI] and one of the report’s authors, said it may be impossible to know with certainty whether there will be negative net migration in 2025, particularly "if the number is close to zero, as it may well be." He said it’s especially difficult to track people who voluntarily leave the U.S.

If it's "impossible to know," maybe the "fact checkers" should find something more sound to attack. But their target selection is aggressively punishing Republicans. 

You don't have to check a "may be." But if you check the page of immigration "reporter" Maria Ramirez Uribe, she's tagged Team Trump twelve times in 2025, and none of them are on the "True" side. There's one "Half True" for Kristi Noem, and the rest are all "Mostly False" or worse. Ramirez Uribe's page shows that she's found nobody on the left who has said anything "checkable" on immigration.

One "False" rating on "Social Media" was still pushing back on the Bell County (Texas) Republican Party arguing Bill Clinton pushed deportations without due process.

That's why we say "PolitiFact (D-Fla.)"