Wednesday’s edition of the PBS News Hour took on yet another unlabeled liberal or Democrat-linked critic of Trump as its guest expert on an issue, this time defending the dubious idea of tax-related privacy rights for illegal immigrants against DOGE’s budget cuts to the IRS, even warning viewers that the agency could implode during tax season as a result.

REPORTER WILLIAM BRANGHAM: For decades, the IRS encouraged undocumented immigrants to file their taxes, with the assurance that their data would be protected. But now this unprecedented agreement would give authorities who want to deport migrants access to personal records that include job information, home addresses and more. It comes less than a week before Tax Day and after a tumultuous few months that also saw mass layoffs across the agency. So, to help understand what this all could mean we are joined now by Natasha Sarin. She`s the president of the Budget Lab at Yale University.

Sarin worked for the Treasury Department for two years during the Biden administration, but PBS wouldn’t tell you that, nor that she contributed $750 to the Biden campaign in 2020.

The conversation initially focused on the recent resignation of IRS head Melanie Krause.

NATASHA SARIN: ….the fact that Melanie Krause chose to resign is really pretty indicative of things being quite awry at the IRS….And so for her to be of the view, that at this moment, one week before Tax Day, it is no longer tenable for her to be at the helm of this agency, I think tells you a lot about how dire circumstances really are there. And with respect to the nature of this data-sharing agreement, there has really been nothing like it in the history of the IRS, and for very good reason.

Sarin fretted about the IRS’s special understanding with illegal immigrants being betrayed, and hyperbolized about the potential results of the betrayal.

SARIN: ….after sort of building up that trust with this population and being in a state where people really had faith that their data would be secure and protected and not used for any other purpose other than tax administration…you’re in a situation where this type of data-sharing is going to occur going forward. And we think that’s going to cost hundreds of billions of dollars over the course of the next decade.

After fretting about IRS staff cuts reducing the organization to 1960-level staffing (is that conservative applause I hear?), Sarin launched a so-far baseless warning about the IRS falling apart during this tax season.

SARIN: ….And so I am really concerned -- and this relates to the nature of the fact that we`re on our sort of -- we will be on our fourth IRS commissioner of this filing season -- that the tax system is kind of on the brink of breaking already.

BRANGHAM: I know your organization did an analysis of what happens when you take a lot of these cops off the beat, to use an expression. But you also tried to calculate what would happen if the general public started to get the idea that there were less cops on the beat and they were less likely to get audited….

SARIN: ….what we find is that, as a result of those behavioral effects, the IRS is on track to lose anywhere from $400 billion to over $2.4 trillion in taxes that are owed over the course of the next decade as a result of not being able to have cops on the beat.

As our Jorge Bonilla pointed out earlier this year, Sarin’s bio at the Budget Lab describes her Treasury work in a way that sounded like she herself performed audits under the Biden administration:

....(Sarin) served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy and later as a Counselor to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at the United States Treasury Department, where her work focused on narrowing the gap between the taxes owed by the American public and those collected by the Internal Revenue Service. 

Which may make her an expert on performing taxpayer audits, but not exactly an objective source on their necessity or validity.

This segment was brought to you in part by Consumer Cellular.

A transcript is available, click “Expand.”

PBS News Hour

4/9/25

7:30:15 p.m. (ET)

AMNA NAWAZ: The top official at the IRS is resigning after news of a deal between the agency and immigration authorities to share sensitive personal data became public on Monday. William Brangham joins us now with more -- William.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: That`s right, Amna.

For decades, the IRS encouraged undocumented immigrants to file their taxes, with the assurance that their data would be protected. But now this unprecedented agreement would give authorities who want to deport migrants access to personal records that include job information, home addresses and more.

It comes less than a week before Tax Day and after a tumultuous few months that also saw mass layoffs across the agency.

So, to help understand what this all could mean we are joined now by Natasha Sarin. She`s the president of the Budget Lab at Yale University.

Natasha, thank you so much for being here.

So immigration officials will now have access to this personal data of migrants who are living in this country and filing their taxes. And when news of this broke, the head of the IRS, Melanie Krause, quit. How unusual is this agreement and this quitting?

NATASHA SARIN, President, Budget Lab at Yale University: So, to put the sort of quitting in some context, we are now at a state where the IRS has gone through three commissioners in one filing season.

I -- in modern history, there has been nothing like it or nothing even close to it, frankly. And the fact that Melanie Krause chose to resign is really pretty indicative of things being quite awry at the IRS, because Melanie, in terms of public reporting, at least is what we have seen, has been someone who, from the agency`s perspective, has been incredibly keen to work with the administration, to work with DOGE on their efforts with respect to work force reductions and data-sharing agreements.

And so for her to be of the view, that at this moment, one week before Tax Day, it is no longer tenable for her to be at the helm of this agency, I think tells you a lot about how dire circumstances really are there.

And with respect to the nature of this data-sharing agreement, there has really been nothing like it in the history of the IRS, and for very good reason. As you mentioned, the agency has historically made clear to undocumented immigrants and to their employers that they should feel secure from a privacy perspective in complying with their tax obligations paying into the IRS $66 billion in federal taxes each year, because their data won`t be weaponized or used for law enforcement in this manner.

And now, after sort of building up that trust with this population and being in a state where people really had faith that their data would be secure and protected and not used for any other purpose other than tax administration, except in incredibly rare circumstances, you`re in a situation where this type of data-sharing is going to occur going forward.

And we think that`s going to cost hundreds of billions of dollars over the course of the next decade.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: I mean, that seems like a natural occurrence from all of this.

Separate from that news, DOGE has also been cutting quite considerably the IRS work force. What do you know about who has been laid off from the IRS and what kind of work were they doing?

NATASHA SARIN: So, so far, what we know is that the agency has laid off about 7,000 probationary employees. And these are people who are either relatively recent hires to the agency or people who are, frankly, such good performers that they have recently been promoted to new roles within the agency.

And, disproportionately, these cuts are coming from individuals who work on activities related to tax compliance and tax enforcement within the IRS. And that`s really concerning, because already the IRS had so little capacity to be able to expend resources on enforcement, particularly of high earners, where every $1 that the IRS spends, every one hour that they spend auditing a multimillionaire generates $4,500 in owed taxes to the agency.

So these are highly productive people that were doing very important work. And as a result of the work force reductions we have already seen there, they`re -- they have left the agency. You`re also in a situation where the IRS is making preparations and DOGE is making preparations for work force reductions that range, based on public reporting, from somewhere between 25 to 50 percent of the agency.

That would put the size of the IRS at levels that it hasn`t seen since 1960, at a time when the population was 60 million people fewer than it is today. And so I am really concerned -- and this relates to the nature of the fact that we`re on our sort of -- we will be on our fourth IRS commissioner of this filing season -- that the tax system is kind of on the brink of breaking already.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: I know your organization did an analysis of what happens when you take a lot of these cops off the beat, to use an expression.

But you also tried to calculate what would happen if the general public started to get the idea that there were less cops on the beat and they were less likely to get audited. What did you find there?

NATASHA SARIN: Importantly, the sort of cop on the beat, the taxpayer behavior effects that you`re talking about, they`re actually even more significant than the direct costs of not being able to do audits.

And what we find is that, as a result of those behavioral effects, the IRS is on track to lose anywhere from $400 billion to over $2.4 trillion in taxes that are owed over the course of the next decade as a result of not being able to have cops on the beat.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: And these are taxes that are legally owed. This is not like they`re going after people in a punitive way.

NATASHA SARIN: No, these are taxes that are legally owed.

And, importantly, it`s not just taxes that are legally owed by people who are looking to evade. Another aspect of what the IRS isn`t going to be able to do as well going forward is help taxpayers get it right when they want assistance from the agency about, like, should I be paying taxes on this type of income and how do I report it? Those types of investments are investments that the IRS has recently been able to scale up because it`s had some resources.

But now it`s having to scale those back down already this filing season.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: All right, that is Natasha Sarin of the Yale Budget Lab. Thank you so much for being here.

NATASHA SARIN: Thanks so much for having me.