MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough flunked basic math on Tuesday’s Morning Joe as he claimed you are 400 times more likely to be murdered in the red state of Louisiana than the blue state of California. Even charitable interpretations of this blunder fail to help Scarborough make the point he thinks he was making.
Scarborough began by seeming to think that red states cannot have crime-ridden blue cities, “There are a lot of cities, and we talked about this yesterday, that need help. A lot of red state cities. If you look at most crime charts, seven, eight of the top ten deadliest cities in America, big cities are usually in red states. If you look at, you know, Gavin Newsom and the Speaker, sort of, had a back and forth this weekend, Speaker Johnson's home state of Louisiana, 400 times more likely. You're 400 times more likely to be killed in Louisiana than you are in California. Certainly nothing you ever hear in the right-wing, sort of, blogosphere.”
On Monday, Scarborough made a similar point on X, but instead of saying 400 times, he quote-tweeted a post from Newsom’s office claiming Louisiana’s murder rate is “nearly 400%” higher. According to the CDC, Louisiana does have a 378 percent higher murder rate. However, if you look at overall crime, it is only 11 percent higher and makes it more of an outlier in the red state-blue state comparison. Violent crime is only 8 percent higher.
Scarborough rolled on:
Specifically the chances of being killed are—of having violent crime done to you or your family member is so much higher. The percentages in Monroe, Louisiana, which is right by the Speaker's district. Shreveport, Louisiana, which is in the Speaker's district, New Orleans, Louisiana, which is in the Speaker's home state. Little Rock, Arkansas, home of, of course, Tom Cotton and some very conservative governor. Bessemer, Alabama, right there in Birmingham. Again, you know, what's Tommy Tuberville doing? Why is crime so bad? Is crime going to get better when Tommy— The fact is that that, first of all: crime rate's at a 60-year low. And you say that and suddenly the same people that are using crime rates to go, ‘Biden sucks’ are saying, ‘Oh, I don't trust the crime. I don't trust the crime stats, which is just pure garbage.’
The people not trusting the crime numbers include Washington, D.C.’s police union. Meanwhile, New Orleans, Little Rock, Bessemer, and Birmingham all have Democratic city governments. Scarborough is also shifting the goalposts. California's crime rate is basically equal to Arkansas's but also 26 percent higher than Alabama’s.
Here is a transcript for the August 26 show:
MSNBC Morning Joe
8/26/2025
6:06 AM ET
JOE SCARBOROUGH: Well, you know, Willie, there are a lot of cities, and we talked about this yesterday, that need help. A lot of red state cities. If you look at most crime charts, seven, eight of the top ten deadliest cities in America, big cities are usually in red states. If you look at, you know, Gavin Newsom and the Speaker, sort of, had a back and forth this weekend, Speaker Johnson's home state of Louisiana, 400 times more likely. You're 400 times more likely to be killed in Louisiana than you are in California. Certainly nothing you ever hear in the right-wing, sort of, blogosphere. They still have blogs, right?
WILLIE GEIST: I think so.
SCARBOROUGH: Or are they newsletters or something, in the Substack-shere. They keep moving the lines. I'm getting old. Come on.
GEIST: Podcast now, it's a talking blog.
SCARBOROUGH: Yeah, the podcast. Exactly. But also, specifically the chances of being killed are—of having violent crime done to you or your family member is so much higher. The percentages in Monroe, Louisiana, which is right by the Speaker's district. Shreveport, Louisiana, which is in the Speaker's district, New Orleans, Louisiana, which is in the Speaker's home state. Little Rock, Arkansas, home of, of course, Tom Cotton and some very conservative governor. Bessemer, Alabama, right there in Birmingham. Again, you know, what's Tommy Tuberville doing? Why is crime so bad? Is crime going to get better when Tommy— The fact is that that, first of all: crime rate's at a 60-year low. And you say that and suddenly the same people that are using crime rates to go, “Biden sucks” are saying, “Oh, I don't trust the crime. I don't trust the crime stats, which is just pure garbage.”