“Events, dear boy, events.” As British prime minister Harold Macmillan opined half a century ago, they are what politicians most worry about. They upend the best laid plans, as they are doing in Canada today.

Over the past month, the combination of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation and U.S. President Donald Trump’s return has shifted Canadian public opinion. Nanos’ latest national poll shows the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals narrowing to eight points from a high of 26, at 38 and 30 per cent, respectively. A Leger poll shows the Liberals once again leading in the province of Quebec. Other surveys reveal similar movement.