Canada’s federal election took a dramatic turn when Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on Canadian exports. Suddenly, what was supposed to be a referendum on Justin Trudeau’s leadership became a campaign about global trade and economic survival.

To complicate things further, Mark Carney — Trudeau’s late-stage replacement as Liberal leader — has surged in the polls. His polished, pragmatic image and calm rhetoric have reassured many voters. He’s even co-opted several of Pierre Poilievre’s best ideas.